First off, I would like to say I am extremely happy the New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots last night. My father is a Giants fan and I grew up watching just as much Rodney Hampton and Otis Anderson run rampant as I watched Miami's carousel of RBs do a whole lot of nothing. It's nice to see not only Miami's rival fall, but to see my father and grandfather so happy with the G-Men's victory. Now if only the Dolphins can bring us that same feeling.
This is my fifth version of the mock draft and there have been a few changes. The draft order finally has the order set with the exception of four spots being decided by a coin toss. The spots that will depend on a coin toss will be marked by an *. As a note, I will not include trade scenarios in the mock drafts. I know there certainly could be moves made and I'm sure there will be at least one trade in the NFL Draft in April, but I will not include them here. I am simply giving a mock draft based on the current order.
1) Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB: It is looking almost certain the Colts will draft Luck and it looks like Peyton Manning and the Colts are on track to part ways. Taking Luck is the best thing for the franchise, even if it does mean that it'll cause you to lose arguably the best player in team history and one of the best QBs to ever play in the NFL.
2) St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR: I have been thinking Matt Kalil would be the most likely candidate until recently. I am thinking the Rams just may consider getting a LT with their second round pick. When it comes to taking Blackmon, the top WR, and a good, but not great LT in the second, I think the Rams will find that option preferable. This could go back to Kalil if the Rams address their WR needs in free agency. Another option is the Rams could just trade back if one of the teams interested in Robert Griffin III wishes to trade up.
3) Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT: Morris Claiborne is also a consideration and Blackmon would go here if available. The Vikings may lean more towards Kalil than Claiborne because they need to protect Christian Ponder. This too is another position both the Dolphins and Redskins may look to trade for to get Griffin.
4) Cleveland Browns - Robert Griffin III, QB: Trent Richardson and, if available, Blackmon are both options here as well. I think the Browns selecting Griffin are about 50%, but the other half is divided by the other two players. Majority wins in this one. While the Browns likely still have faith in Colt McCoy, Griffin may just be too much to pass up.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB: I've bounced back and forth with Claiborne and Trent Richardson at this position, but I will go back to Claiborne because I believe he's at a position that carries more value. Ronde Barber will be a free agent and Aqib Talib is facing legal problems, making CB a hole the Bucs must address.
Previous pick: Trent Richardson, RB
6) Washington Redskins - Riley Reiff, OT: Griffin would likely be the preferred choice, but the Redskins have the Browns in front of them and don't have the ammunition like the Browns do if both teams wish to enter a bidding war for the Baylor QB. Blackmon and Claiborne would be their next targets, but both of them fall off the board. Instead, the Redskins bite the bullet in this scenario as they can't land any of their preferred targets. Reiff is still a nice consolation prize as he and Jammal Brown will help settle Washington's OT positions for a long while.
Previous pick: Morris Claiborne, CB
7) Jacksonville Jaguars - Quinton Coples, DE: Aaron Kampman is getting up there in age and may not be back. Matt Roth just wasn't the answer for Jacksonville. Coples would do very well to help solidify their defensive line and will give Jacksonville a good pass rushing threat for the next several years in a division that has Matt Schaub, Jake Locker, and probably Andrew Luck.
*8) Miami Dolphins - Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB: The Dolphins would love to get Griffin and with a 4-3 defense, they'd also love to get Coples. Unfortunately, neither are available. Ingram is the next best option at DE to play opposite ofCameron Wake. Another option for Miami may be for them to try and move down toward the middle of the round and draft Ryan Tannehill, but with Griffin in Cleveland, they may be able to land Tannehill in the second, even if they have to trade up a few spots. Mark Barron would be a slight reach here, but could land with Miami to fill their need for a play-making Safety. Personally, I would absolutely love to have Blackmon at this spot as well. Having him and Marshall as a duo would help our starting QB, no matter who that happens to be.
*9) Carolina Panthers - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: They may go with someone like Jonathan Martin as well, but they need help badly on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina allowed 8.4 YPA against the pass and Kirkpatrick could be a starter from day 1. He'd help fix their defense while their offense grows.
10) Buffalo Bills - Andre Branch, DE: Upshaw is still a possibility in the eyes of some, but I think Buffalo goes for a more traditional 4-3 DE with Branch. It's possible the Bills can also target Jonathan Martin here, but with a new shift in defensive schemes, the Bills need to find someone to fill their 4-3 DE need.
Previous pick: Courtney Upshaw, OLB
*11) Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Kuechly, ILB: Their defense has underperformed and Kuechly will help solidify the LBs. They will look to resign CB Brandon Flowers and hope that he andBrandon Carr will rebound from underwhelming years. Eric Berry returning will also help their secondary.
*12) Seattle Seahawks - Trent Richardson, RB: I would have to agree with Todd McShay of ESPN here if Richardson makes it this far. If the Seahawks were interested in Tannehill, they could likely try to trade down and if Richardson was available, I would have to think the Cincinnati Bengals and maybe even the New York Jets could be an option as a trading partner. Even if Seattle were to resign Marshawn Lynch, Richardson is just too good a prospect for Seattle to pass over.
Previous Pick: Riley Reiff, OT
13) Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT: The Cardinals will be happy to take one of the top three OTs or David DeCastro as they need help all over the offensive line. They could look Vontaze Burfict or Courtney Upshaw with this pick too if they're available.
14) Dallas Cowboys - Janoris Jenkins, CB: With a strong outing at the Senior Bowl, Jenkins overtakes Dennard in the draft. Jenkins could've been the #1 CB in the draft had he not had issues with the Gators. With Terrence Newman expected be out of Dallas this offseason, they will need all the help Dennard can provide.
Previous pick: Alfonzo Dennard, CB
15) Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Brockers, DT: The weak link for the Eagles has been their LBs and FS, but they're not ready to give up on Nate Allen and the selection of Brockers could help Casey Matthews at MLB. Brockers and Cullen Jenkins would give the Eagles a very nice tandem at DT and with Jason Babin and Trent Cole at DE, Philly would have a defensive line that could end up being just as good as the defensive front four of the New York Giants. Michael Floyd could be an option here if they've grown tired of DeSean Jackson.
Previous pick: Vontaze Burfict, ILB
16) New York Jets - Mark Barron, FS/SS: Courtney Upshaw could also be an option if available. The Jets have holes at both safety positions and could use a man like Barron to help solidify their weaknesses covering TEs. Barron isn't very good in man coverage and may be a bit stiff in the hips, but he's great in zone coverage with his ability to read the QB. His closing speed will be able to make up for many of his mistakes when he's slow to turn and run with a receiver. He's aggressive in run support, but will overrun on the play at times.
17) Cincinnati Bengals - Alfonzo Dennard, CB: He'd be a top 10 pick if he wasn't in trouble with the Gators. The Bengals have Leon Hall, but Nate Clements is 32 and has been inconsistent. Jenkins and Hall could quickly become one of the better CB duos in the NFL.
Previous pick: Janoris Jenkins, CB
18) San Diego Chargers - Courtney Upshaw, OLB: The Chargers could also use David DeCastro, but the prospect of Courtney Upshaw is just too much for them to pass up. The Chargers need a lot of help at OLB as Larry English just hasn't developed as San Diego has hoped.
Previous pick: David DeCastro, OG
19) Chicago Bears - David DeCastro, OG: The Bears could really use someone like Michael Floyd at WR, but DeCastro is considered by some the best OL in the draft. The Bears address the bigger need and select DeCastro at this slot.
Previous pick: Michael Floyd, WR
20) Tennessee Titans - Nick Perry, DE: Karl Klug has been the top pass rusher for the Titans with 7 and they need to get some help to get to the passer. Parry is a natural pass rusher that could help the Titans get after the QB. With a bunch of young QB prospects in the AFC South, the Titans will need someone to rattle their cage. CB could be a hole if they don't resign Cortland Finnegan, but I already project the top CBs to be gone.
Previous pick: Andre Branch, DE
21) Cincinnati Bengals - Lamar Miller, RB: Cedric Benson hasn't been very effective despite his rushing yards and he's a free agent. Miller is a home run threat and is quick to hit the holes. Miller is also a tough runner to bring down. It's possible Cincy could go with a Guard or Center like Cordy Glenn or Peter Konz, but there is a thin market for RBs in free agency and the Bengals need an upgrade in the backfield more than they do on the line.
22) Cleveland Browns (via Falcons) - Michael Floyd, WR: The Browns opt to give Colt McCoy and Griffin another weapon here. They could make a run at Ryan Tannehill here if they pass on Griffin. Floyd has some height to him and a bit of speed. With Greg Little joining Floyd on the outside, the Browns can finally focus on rebuilding their receiving threats since they dumped the likes of Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards.
Previous pick: Alshon Jeffery
23) Detroit Lions - Cordy Glenn, OG: The Lions, like many teams, need help on their offensive line and could also go with Peter Konz to place Dominic Raiola at center, but I think they'll try to milk another season out of their aging center while they address OG. Zach Brown could also be an option for the Lions if they wish to address LB.
Previous pick: Zebrie Sanders.
24) Pittsburgh Steelers - Vontaze Burfict, ILB: Dontari Poe could be another option if they look for a future NT, but the Steelers also need to inject some youth at ILB. Hightower has been a great leader on the Alabama defense and is another one of the great Alabama LBs. Also, Paul Soliai could be a free agent target to replace Casey Hampton if they overlook Poe.
Previous pick: Dont'a Hightower, ILB
25) Denver Broncos - Devon Still, DT: Denver already has solid players on the outside for the future with Elvis Dumervil,Robert Ayers, and Von Miller. Still could bring a solid presence in the middle to team with Broderick Bunkley to help solidify the middle of the field and strengthen Denver's run defense. Kendall Wright could be an option, but I think Denver likes Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.
26) Houston Texans - Alshon Jeffery, WR: They could also go for Dontari Poe here, but they should be satisfied with where their defense is at. Jeffery still has a lot of improvement he needs to do, but he has the potential to give the Texans a solid compliment to Andre Johnson.
Previous pick: Kendall Wright, WR
27) New England Patriots (via Saints) - Kendall Wright, WR: The Patriots could address the defensive line here if they wish, but they also need a deep threat at WR. Wright would be the perfect solution to help bring a downfield threat and take attention away from the middle of the field.
Previous pick: Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB
28) Green Bay Packers - Whitney Mercilus, DE: Mercilus is a bit of a risky player in my mind, but the prospect of teaming him up with Clay Matthews and trying to terrorize QBs would be very enticing for the Packers.
Previous pick: Jared Crick, DE
29) Baltimore Ravens - Peter Konz, C: The Ravens need a center to take over for the aging Matt Birk. Konz, the best center in the class, would give the Ravens one of the best interior lines in the NFL if the Ravens can resign Ben Grubbs.
30) San Francisco 49ers - Mohamed Sanu, WR: Braylon Edwards didn't performed as good as San Francisco hoped and is now gone. The 49ers could test the free agent market, but if unable to land a WR, Sanu would be a good fit. He doesn't have elite speed, but he's fast enough to be a vertical threat. He has very good hands, runs good routes, and is physical enough to get off the line.
31) New England Patriots - Fletcher Cox, DE/DT: Cox can thrive as a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE. Cox has athleticism and superb strength. He has pass rushing moves, but he mostly depended on his bull rush while at Georgia. He is at a good weight for either position, but he's capable of adding more weight at the pro level. Adding him to play next to Mercilus would be a good way for New England to start patching up a poor defense, especially one that generates little pass rush.
32) New York Giants - Zebrie Sanders: The Giants offensive line has been going through transition. Look the once dominant offensive line to try and speed up their recovery by drafting Sanders. They'd love to have Glenn available and may look for Dwayne Allen at TE, but they probably feel they have enough weapons.
Previous pick: Cordy Glenn
1 recs | 70 comments
fix
First of all first, second of all U need to fix number 18 and 19. U got David DeCastro twice.
HawkFire89 - February 6, 2012 via mobile
Could we trade our 1st and 3rd round pick to go get Coples?
I mean, RG3 is off the board with this scenario, and we don’t need a whole lot of pieces, but we do need freaks. Coples is definitely worth it. I say go BIG or go home.
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
We also need to go get Tannehill in the 2nd....
Put him behind Manning for a few years and see if he can learn anything…
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
So we trade our 2nd round pick.....
and 5th round pick and jump ahead of the Redskins to take Tannehill…
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
Then in the 4th we get a TE...
Not neccessarily a pass catching TE… We already have that in Clay… We take the best TE available to compliment Fasano and Clay.
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
I dont want a "pokey at safety" this year!
wild zion beaver - February 6, 2012
Chris Clemmons is pretty athletic...
Reshad Jones is slower, but he has better instincts. Chris Clemmons was able to do better 2 years ago at FS than Reshad Jones did last year and that was all physical skill making up for his relative lack of instinct. You get Croyle in there showing him how to play the position and he can improve over 2 years ago, when he didn’t get beat deep very many times at all. There were many times he was bracketing a #1 WR perfectly. Clemmons can get the job done. But if you don’t like him, we could always go after a proven FS in the free agency like Michael Griffin. I wouldn’t go after Landry though because of the heel… I think he might need surgery… since that is what the doctors told him and all…
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
Not keen on Coples at all
I see bust written all over him.
Agent J 78 - February 6, 2012
ditto
texascowpunk - February 6, 2012 via Android app
Let me start with this before I get to your point. The switch to the 4-3 definitely changes the Dolphins position.
Me and Joel debated a little bit, prior to the switch whether or not the Dolphins should make the transition. He was completely for it, I had some reservations but believed (and do still) that it is a move the Dolphins are capable of making from a personnel standpoint and the required pieces for the switch are equal, possibly less than what is required in maintaining the 3-4. If the Dolphins were to make the switch, this is the year. Paul Soliai and Kendall Langford were two of the three primary defensive pieces in the front seven who don’t have a place in the 4-3 defense (the other is Misi). Langford is a 5 tech player only, he doesn’t have the build to play in a 4-3 line, he doesn’t generate pass rush and the values of his gap discipline and lateral movement are eliminated in that base defense. Last year the Dolphins implemented a few 4-3 formations (although not many) and Langford didnt play in them.
So you are asking why are you telling me what I already know? It ties in to both Coples and RG3 (as well as Ingram). With the switch to the 4-3 defense the Dolphins are suddenly very thin on the Defensive Line. We talk about Coples and Ingram, they are both great players and help solve the Defensive End problem. Those picks though are improving an area of the team that was very strong in 2011, at least as McDaniel and Merling returned and Jared Odrick continuously improved throughout the year. The Dolphins were an unusual 3-4 team anyways in that they have players at Defensive End who can play both 3 and 5 tech, had great rotation and who the team depended on for pass rush. As the Defensive rotation improved throughout the season, the Dolphins began to generate pass rush, it didn’t come from the Outside LInebacker position. If Ingram or Coples come to Miami that situation will (hopefully) remain the same even though players who were vital in generating pass rush will have to play DT (Starks and McDaniel). So the Dolphins will be replenishing that pass rush with those picks.
RG3 is a different story. The Earl and I talked about moving up in the Week 16 postgame thread after the Pats game. He threw out swapping current 1st round picks, giving the Rams first round pick from 2013, second round pick from 2012, 5th from 2012, Starks and Smith as a great trade for the Dolphins if the Rams were to take it. Even though this is very cheap to move up to 2, I was hesitant at the time because the Dolphins were so dependent on the Ends for generating pass rush. If Starks left, I feared the impact would be bigger than he thought it would( and with the change to 3-4 will anyways). As for the trade itself though I have since changed my mind. If the Rams took that deal, the Dolphins have to do it. I would trade away more than that for a potential Top-10 Quarterback in the NFL.
My point is this. We can draft Coples (if he falls to 9, which I dont see happening) or Ingram (who I think will fall to 9) and the pass rush wwon’t suffer nearly as much as it otherwise would have. Pass rush though is replaceable, Top-10 Quarterbacks aren’t.
civwarbuff - February 6, 2012
trading Starks and Smith is a crazy move...
I don’t understand why Sean Smith gets picked on on this site… He doesn’t get beat that often… He is not a great tackler and he is not great covering short quick receivers like Welker because when he drops his hips to change direction he has a lot further to drop than Welker. Personally I think Nolan and Sparano should have been shot for ever letting that matchup happen. Stick Sean Smith and Vontae in man coverage. Put Sean Smith on the big receiver, and Vontae on the little quick guys. So how this would work is if you are playing the 2007 Patriots(because they were more threatening from a WR standpoint than the 2011 version) you would put Smith on Moss, and Davis on Welker.
Then you let Clemons help bracket Moss and you shut both of them down for the game. Then you play man coverage with your LBs(Misi , Dansby or Burnett.. you could even throw them off and drop Wake into coverage, and bring the other LBs) on their TE(s) unless you are facing an athletic TE like Hernandez. If he is in the game with Gronk, you play nickel by bringing in Will Allen or Jimmy Wilson to cover him in man coverage. You then let Y Bell cover the other WR man to man and bring the pain with your D-line and LBs. If they have a RB you cover him man with one of the inside LBs in case he goes out for a pass, and bring the heat on Brady with everyone else you have. You might get beat a time or 2, but Brady can’t take getting hit all game long.
I would much rather trade away draft picks(not good players that have a role on our team) to get RG3, but if we are not doing that I would be OK with going up to get Coples and get Tannehill in the 2nd by moving up again. In that scenario we would not pick in the 3rd or 5th round, but we would have a legitimate answer for OLB/DE and a young QB with some skill to develop behind a great QB. We would have to move up, because I don’t see the Redskins passing on him a 2nd time especially if they had not traded up and gotten RG3.
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
Ok lots of stuff here and I love that. Love talking scheme, personnel e.t.c.
First I want to talk about the points you raised and we can get back to the trade details. You are using the 2007 Patriots as an example of how the Dolphins should utilize personnel and that is fair. They were definitely more talented at receiver than the 2011 version is (I think that receiver was one of the Patriots many glaring holes in 2011 to be honest). So I am going to field that.
I strongly disagree with your approach though for several reasons. Vontae Davis is a terrible fit to play in press man coverage against Wes Welker. Vontae Davis can play man to man but he struggles with press coverage concepts. He is far better in off coverage concepts because like in zone coverage he can keep the routes in front of him and shadow their movements. Vontae Davis is very fast when moving in straight lines and he has incredible instincts and tenacity so the Dolphins use him in off coverage to close space on receivers and in zone coverage to provide him with angles to make plays on the ball. A few months back I asked user Ct1361 to provide some insight into why he struggles so much in press coverage and what limitations continue to restrict him, as I knew that he felt the same way as I did about Vontae Davis and I wanted another opinion. His reply was spot on.
He said:
“What he lacks IMO are a couple of things.
One is hip turn which basically means he doesn’t accelerate well out of a lateral break. Really good man CB’s don’t lose a step when the WR makes his cut, Davis does. That’s why he seems to always be trailing the WR on in cuts or slants but is in the WR’s hip pocket on go’s or fades, he doesn’t have to turn his hips on those routes.
The 2nd reason he struggles in man is that he lacks make up quickness. His top end speed is fine for the position, it just takes him awhile to get to that speed and by the time he does get up to speed, the WR usually has a step or two on him.”
Which leads me to another point about Vontae Davis. He isn’t a corner who excels in space, meaning that to play him inside takes away from what he is really good with. At Nickel you are more vulnerable underneath because there is more space for the receiver to move and more alternatives in terms of what routes can be run. This forces teams to play tighter on the insides as compared to what they can do on the outsides. Vontae Davis has seen reps against Welker but only when Welker is wide, where Davis can play with more depth and close space. In Week 16 this happened a few times and Davis made two stupendous plays on the ball, closing the space with his awesome burst.
As for Sean Smith, he has in the past covered Welker in the slot. In 2009 in the game at home (Week 13), Pasqauloni used Smith for the majority of the final three quarters on Welker in the slot and Smith held his own. I agree that he isn’t a perfect fit to cover Welker, because of his size and if played inside with consistancy will also have his struggles because many of the inside receivers are smaller and can use the height disparity to their advantage. When watching Sean Smith though it is obvious that the Dolphins use Nnamdi Asomugha as his model. If you remember in 2010, Bess shredded Asomugha in the Oakland game. Tore him to pieces. In 2011 though, in a similar personnel situation (once the Dolphins injuries to the line set in against Philly) Bess couldn’t seperate against Asomugha. Part of this is Bess, however it also shows that bigger corners despite some limitation can play inside if good enough.
Not only though do I disagree with the personnel matchups, Davis, Smith, the obvious problems with Maroney/Faulk on Linebackers (it is the job of a coach to put his players in the best positions to win, these matchups don’t do that), but also with the underlying approach. If you run any coverage with consistancy against Tom Brady he will tear your defense apart. In Rex Ryan’s words, “you have no chance, like, you better hope that a hurricane comes or something”. Tom Brady understands every coverage and if you even show your look too early (nevermind him knowing what coverages your in ALL game) you are in big trouble because their offense is a well-oiled machine that thrives on running plays that beat the coverages they are getting. In man, Brady knows every corners strengths and weaknesses, but more importantly they are as good as anyone at clearing lanes against man coverage and artificially creating seperation, as well as making in game adjustments. The key to play against Tom Brady (in any season) is deception in combination with pressure. Not necessarily pressure scheme, but getting to Brady. Some people say that Brady can’t be confused by scheme, but he can, he is a human being and I see him get confused by scheme. It also restricts the offenses rhythm, an important thing to limit when playing the Patriots. In 2007 pressure with the base fronts and running coverage scheme was the best possible avenue, but you had to mix it up constantly. Now I think pressure scheme is more do-able because they don’t have the weapons at receiver (although their TE’s aren’t too shabby!).
As for RG3, I understand how big a trade it is. I like Sean Smith and am even more concerned about the impact of trading away Starks. But this is no longer a Quarterback driven league, it is a Quarterback starved league and I have since changed my opinion on that trade. If the Rams will take it and the Dolphins believe that RG3 will be a great player in the NFL, Ireland IMO is obliged to make it. That is nothing for a Top-10 Quarterback in this league.
Think of where the Pats would have been without Brady this season. They would not have won 5 games. Not this year.
Btw this is a great discussion.
civwarbuff - February 7, 2012
Seriously
We need Coples not this Ingram guy!
XtremePhinFan - February 6, 2012
No
texascowpunk - February 6, 2012 via Android app
Do you mind if I ask what concerns you about Coples.
I love the kid. He is the prototypical, long Defensive End (the Parcells DE) with explosion, good hand speed, surprising lateral quickness for his size (which many have suggested will allow him to play 3 tech if needed) and he is very strong. He reminds me alot of Julius Peppers when I watch him. May not quite have Pepper’s explosion off of the line, but they are very similar in body type and skill sets.
Just interested in you take Texas. If you don’t mind?
civwarbuff - February 6, 2012
*your
civwarbuff - February 6, 2012
Wait for the full post!
texascowpunk - February 6, 2012 via Android app
Michael Egnew would be a good value if he was available there..
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
reply to myself fail.... I mean in the 4th round...
after we moved up to take Coples and moved up to take Tannehill…
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
my ideal off season is...
Sign Peyton Manning. Trade down to Middle first, gain an extra second round pick. Draft the TE Allen with our first, and then trade back into the first using our two 2nd round picks for Tannehill. From there on, draft all O-Linemen, and D-Linemen. Oh, oops, sign either Griffin, or Reggie Nelson in FA. It may be a pipe dream, but its definitely possible.
FinzD54 - February 6, 2012 via mobile
Why so much emphasis on TE so early?
Why is everyone jumping on this “we need a TE early in draft” BS? Has nobody payed attention to what the Patriots just showed us? Where was Gronkowski drafted? Where was Hernandez drafted? We don’t need to waste a 1st round pick on a TE. I like your offseason ideas, except who you have being drafted. I think if we trade back, we should draft Barron and then trade back into the first round for an O-lineman.
If/when we get Manning, he automatically makes every TE and WR on the roster a hell of a lot better. I mean he basically took Reggie Wayne from a shadow #2 WR to a Pro Bowler, Garcon from a D2 WR to a Super Bowl/playoff hero, Tamme from a no-namer to a solid option as a #2 TE behind Dallas Clark who was basically no one and now a hell of a TE. Manning makes everyone around him better. There’s no need in getting a TE in the 1st. However, Manning can’t throw the ball from his ass, so we have to get a better OL to protect him and give him time to do his thing.
Jared Maier - February 6, 2012
i dont agree with taking a TE early in the draft but...
gronk was the rist pick of the second round, almost a 1st round pick
Bobby Schonger - February 6, 2012
Didn't anyone learn anything from the Super Bowl?
How do you beat an explosive offense? You make their QB worry about who is coming for him. Brady did a good job getting rid of the ball quickly that whole game and didn’t get hit very often, but don’t think for a minute that he didn’t lose sleep about what JPP, Tuck and Osi would do to him if he didn’t get the ball out quick. Did you think he was off during that game and the Ravens game? He missed some throws that he doesn’t miss often and it was because he heard the footsteps coming after him. Even though the pass rush never got to him, you can not say that the pass rush didn’t get to him….
Clay is only going to get better with a guy like Manning or Tannehill throwing him the ball. Every time we threw that guy the ball it seemed like it was good for 20+ yards. If you want to get a traditional TE or another pass catching TE even, that is fine, but do it in the later rounds, unless there is a TE with the skill set of a Vernon Davis… which I don’t think there is out there this year(that is a rare freak of an athlete). I think if we get a new QB our WRs and maybe even Fasano explodes too. I also think Reggie Bush gets some touches in the passing game and we just light up the field then…We need to honestly stop keeping him in to block and making them waste a LB that would otherwise be pass rushing trying to cover him…. Reggie can do a lot more to protect the QB like that than by blocking imho.
There are plenty of big guys that you can plug in and the normal fan will probably never notice them… But if you want a good offense or defense you either get D-linemen in the first round, or you sign former first round picks as free agents. You can develop an offensive lineman, but the 1st round guys will always be head and shoulders above late round guys. There are plenty of little guys out there that all run about the same speed because there are more guys that size. There is a lot of speculating that goes into what round they should go in so it is possible to find a talented guy late. But there just aren’t that many big guys that can move the way the top tier guys move. You can not develop that.
Paul Soliai is a good example. We have developed him into a pretty decent NT. He is good enough to get the job done against most O-lines in the game(although there are games he will just get embarrassed). He will never be able to hold his own against elite offensive lines and he will never be elite. He is slow off the ball and he doesn’t know how to use his hands.
In high school I could own every single O-lineman I faced. As a 170 lb DE, I routinely owned our 360 lb LT, who already had a full ride to Michigan (if he could only make a 700 total on the SAT… which he couldn’t). The reason was I would beat the crap out of him off the ball and hit him almost before he got out of his stance, then turn his shoulder pads, and bull rush him back into the QB. When I got to UCF a year later I had already put on 60lbs(it was a good year for me), and I was facing a much smaller Center (Mike Gruttadauria) who weighed only 275 lbs, but ran a 4.6 40. He owned me for weeks while I tried to get used to how much quicker he was than what I was used to. I eventually got to where I could not get pancaked on every single play from what I would have considered to be a little guy(even though I was only 230lbs at that time). He was off the ball so much faster than anyone I had faced, and was on top of you and into you before you had a chance to do anything about it.
Mike was a Senior that year and went on to start at Center for the 1999 Rams(“The Greatest Show on Turf”). Do not for a minute think that offense would have been as explosive as they were without smaller linemen that could take advantage of the fast surface and beat the crap out of bigger D-linemen. Granted the fact that he was so undersized for the NFL made his career very short as he got a neck injury. The moral of the story is you might find a good smaller O-lineman in later rounds, but they won’t last long.
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
If i have ever watched a draft when one teams drafted an OG there is useally a run on the og becouse thats how its down when they start to leave the board theres a domino affect that takes place!
Right after the bears take theres Detroit trades up & gets its claws in the best one left & so on!
wild zion beaver - February 6, 2012
Is this where I come to mock finhead?
texascowpunk - February 6, 2012 via Android app
Yes.. especially at #19, where he has DeCastro as a WR.
If that is true, what a monster wide-out that guy is…. lol
Alpha6 - February 6, 2012
oh my
texascowpunk - February 6, 2012 via Android app
LOL
I forgot to change that when I changed my mind.
Finhead83 - February 6, 2012
We in a position when can't get we want (RGIII) but to high to get the 2nd Option
David Leal - February 6, 2012
I think people are going to be sorely disappointed with our draft selection
However it will pay dividends in the end. But in the end, it all depends on who we have at QB.
Here are the possible scenarios:
1. We trade up, select RG 3, and lose out on several draft picks. This option only happens if we miss out on options 2,3, and 4.
2. We sign Peyton, trade back to about the 16, select OG. We need OL bad, and this is the spot i see us needing the most improvement with two possible RT already on our roster.
3. Pick up Flynn, trade down to late 20s and select Koby Fleener. TE. Or into mid teens and nab Barron. The latter being if Ireland cant adjust YBs contract.
4. Sign a second or third tier QB, and draft OL, or a number two WR. I think people underestimate this option, but Jason Campbell fits here perfectly. All the skills none of the confidence. Just seems like an under the radar move that could pay dividends. WCO + Campbell + a solid QB coaching staff that could convince a billygoat he would be able to play the position= just enough to allow us to fly under the radar.
dolphinfan4lyfe - February 6, 2012 via mobile
WCO... With Certain Optimism?
Alpha6 - February 6, 2012
west coast offense ... I am betting...lol
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
Yes. I knew that,
I was being facishious….
Alpha6 - February 6, 2012
I am going to disagree with you Dolphinfan4lyfe.
I think Jeff Ireland greatly improved the Offensive LIne from 2010 to 2011 with the Pouncey pick and the move of Vernon Carey to Right Guard. The play of the interior of the line was a major reason of thedrastic improvment in the running game (along with Reggie Bush, although only Bush was a very sucessful move, Thomas was far less successful). As I often say, the unit was the most unfairly maligned on the team. Vernon Carey hitting Free Agency complicates the matter, and the Right Guard position has to be dealt with if he doesn’t return and obviously Marc Colombo at Right Tackle severly detracts from what the rest of the unit accomplished in 2011. However even if RG and RT are not adequately addressed, the team will be in a similar position from a Line standpoint as they were in 2010. It will affect the Running game dramatically, which I din’t want and the issues in pass protection will remain at RT.
The more serious issue though is at Receiver and Tight End. The primary issue on the Dolphins offense (outside of inconsistant play at Quarterback) is the lack of seperation and explosion this team gets at those positions. The Dolphins offense in 2011 was predicated on the success of the running game. Against clubs that the Dolphins struggled to run against (Dallas, Washington, Denver e.t.c.) the offense struggled against. Allow me to use the Eagles game. As soon as the Dolphins suffered injuries to the interior of the offensive line and as a result the running game began to struggle, Jaun Castillo began to press his safeties to within 7-8 yards depth of the line, bracketing Marshall every play and putting their best corner Asomugha on Bess, who unlike 2010 won the matchup (and many more corners won that matchup in 2011 than prior season but that is another issue). As a result the offense went dead.
The primary difference between the 2010 Dolphins offense and the 2011 Dolphins offense were the improvements to the interior of the line and the major move at runningback as a result the running game improved from 28th in the league in 2010 YPP to 11th. The running game ultimately improved the offense from 2010 to 2011 (27th to 24th in total offense, YPP). However if the Dolphins can’t run the ball in a game, the offense was back to where it was down the stretch of 2010 (possibly worse because Bess had so much more trouble getting seperation in and out of his breaks) As a result the defense will condense the field, run the coverages they want on Marshall and come down on Bess (who struggled against multiple Nickel corners this season alone in man getting seperation including Patterson, Wilhite e.t.c.).
This is absolutely vital for the team to deal with.
civwarbuff - February 6, 2012
To elaborate, the point was not about Bess.
I didn’t think Bess had as a good a season in 2011 than he had, especially in 2009 and 2010 and I am somewhat concerned about him getting less seperation in man coverage, he just didn’t seem to have the same explosion in and out of his breaks.
However the point I was making was unrelated. The situation of the receiver corps is generally the same and the primary point was about the offenses limited improvement, how even drastic moves that did play a role in the offense on the LIne and one beneficial move at Runningback improved the offense but only marginally.
civwarbuff - February 6, 2012
Lets be serious...
They had Chad Henne throwing the ball who knows where, and Matt Moore running for his life… Not exactly motivation to get open… is it?
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
The thing is, our RG is already on our roster, and if we get a player like Peyton, LG will have to be addressed, especially if we continue to allow Pouncey to stay at Center, which I dont see a reason not to.
The main issue, and one that I feel is affecting not only Longs health, but Pounceys snaps, is that we dont have an established pulling Guard on the left side. This leads to mis snaps, and the necessity for long to take on 2 sometimes three people in pass protection.
As far as our running game goes, being able to sell the pass and allowing Pouncey to focus solely on snapping the ball, as well as handling the inside tackles would and should only help the running game.
Not only that, but it should eliviate
dolphinfan4lyfe - February 6, 2012 via mobile
some of the pressure off Long
dolphinfan4lyfe - February 6, 2012 via mobile
I have to agree with you on the O-line...
Carey was very solid at RG, and we can definitely live with John Jerry at RT after enduring a season of Columbo.
Our more serious problem is not WR or TE though… It is NT and OLB. True OLB isn’t really a hurting need, but it is a place where there is both value and the ability to greatly improve our defense really quick. If there were a dominant NT there at 8 I say you make the move and grab him first, as the 3-4 has to be built from the inside out, but I don’t see anyone there that can actually help us. this year. Our WRs and TEs are plenty good enough if we can find someone to get them the ball. Manning can do that, and so can RG3 or Luck, or Flynn(probably… ask Joe Philbin though) for that matter. If we improve our QB, it is like drafting a WR or 2 because we will get better there. BM will miss less balls, and so will Bess, and Hartline, and Clay and Bush and even Fasano. We also have some guys like Gates that didn’t even get a chance to show us what they had really because we couldn’t get them the ball down the field. Did you see what happened to the great Wes Welker when Brady put the ball in the wrong place? Don’t give me the crap that he did it on purpose, unless you mean he hurried the throw because he was afraid of getting hit and make an uncharacteristic throw for him. If he puts that ball in front of Welker instead of where he put it, Welker makes that catch every single time.
We were dependent on the running game because our QB just wasn’t that good and they played base defense and only cheated up when we were gashing them in the running game. You would rather give up a running play if they can’t get over 3-5 yards a carry because teams aren’t going to put up 60 points on you that way. If you play bend-not-break defense, you will eventually get a break and they will either mess up and shoot themselves in the foot or they will only average 3 yds on 3 consecutive runs and the drive is over. If you are running for 5-10 yards a carry you have to cheat up with your SS and slow down the pass rush and play the run first.
Dan Marino never needed a running game. You would have to either be crazy or Jimmy Johnson to take the ball out of his hands and give it to a RB when he played. Don’t blame the lack of running game… the QB just wasn’t good enough to beat a base defense. I also think that some of those 36 sacks on Matt Moore were the product of himself. He did weird things in the pocket that caused him to get sacked. What he did a few plays was almost like the opposite of avoiding pressure… running to the pressure.
The offensive line is solid. If we move Jerry to RT and don’t do anything else but resign Carey we will be much improved. If we were to sign a guy like Nicks, we get elite… but again… we don’t need to be elite on the O-line … we just need to be good enough.
Jason Scott_90 - February 6, 2012
What I love about your comments is that you bring up lots of talking points.
It makes for interesting discussion. I will begin with defense. Now the Dolphins are going to have plenty of needs on defense with the transition to the 3-4. Outside Linebacker is now a primary concern, as Langford and Soliai walk the Dolphins will no longer be very deep on the defensive line, with a serious need at pass rush outside linebacker, issues that may go unaddressed at safety and if the RG3 trade went as I detailed earlier a glaring hole at cornerback and further weakness to the interior of the defensive line. The defense certainly would be stripped to it’s bare necessities. Is this unfortunate, of course it is and the unit’s production would be drastically worse in 2012. However that is the way the league is going. The Green Bay Packers gave up more yards than any other defense in the history of the NFL from scrimmage, 411.6 YPG (NFL record), including 6.3 YPP (tied for 32nd in the league with the Bucs). However they were a specialized defense. An overly-aggressive scheme that gives up massive yardage, in exchange for generating turnovers and a unit trained to limit points in the red zone. Red Zone defense and Turnover margin became the unit’s goals for the 2011 season. Jason, that club went 15-1, the best record in the leaugue. The Patriots played the same type of defense in 2011 with parity across the board in statistics. I am not saying that there is one model to success, nor that defense is irrelevant, but that ceding talent on that side of the ball whilst maintaining core pieces and adopting an aggressive scheme (and specializing in key areas, Red Zone, turnovers) in exchange for tremendous explosion on offense is a viable approach and is winning teams games in the NFL.
civwarbuff - February 7, 2012
Oh good lord. You guy's need to start providing a set of "Cliff's Notes" with your comments. I have no time to read
all of those and keep up with the rest of the site.
texascowpunk - February 7, 2012
Except we're not switching to the 3-4...
We’re switching to the 4-3 from the 3-4. With Dansby and Burnett at OLB, I don’t see OLB being a major concern. Instead, I think it is the MLB position. That could be addressed with the likes of Joe Mays or Curtis Lofton though.
Finhead83 - February 7, 2012
LOL. Of course. I must of wrote the post too fast.
Yes the Dolphins are transitioning to the 4-3 defense from the 3-4 defense. haha Wow.
civwarbuff - February 7, 2012
Thanks for catching that.
civwarbuff - February 7, 2012
Ok last comment and here is why I came back to the page to make a point to Jason but I will make it here.
Aside from what I was saying about the state of defenses and the evolution of the league e.t.c. and that 3-4 thing (I hope that you know that I don’t actually…anyways… I do it conversationally as well and I hate it about myself because it detracts from what I’m saying.) Sometimes the words come out one way and the brain is thinking another. I wish those types of things wouldn’t happen, but they do. I obviously know that the Dolphins were a base 3-4 defense.
Ok, the point I was ultimately going to make to Jason, played off of what I said to him here about opening up needs on defense and replenishing them e.t.c. If Dansby plays Outside Linebacker in the 4-3 defense (which he typically did in the few 4-3 formations that the Dolphins had built in to the 2010/2011 defense under Nolan) than the position isn’t as critical as Burnett will also play the other OLB postion. Strong and weak respectively. My assumption was that Dansby will play Middle backer in the 4-3 scheme, although yes he could move back to OLB as he played in Arizona. My point was about the moves that will follow on the line and how thin the unit will then be e.t.c but…as I detailed above the counterargument.
The primary point I was going to make was about the critical need at receiver and how I think he is underestimating it as many fans do. I have spent alot of time studying how defenses approach the Dolphins offense and allow me to use the Denver game as an example as I have put a particular amount of time into it. Let me tell you, they have zero respect for this teams ability to seperate and they are winning in that assumption. In 2011, the success of the Dolphins offense was directly correlated to the success of the running game. If the team was struggling to run the ball against the opposition’s base fronts they will begin to run the coverages that they want on the backend. They clamped down all over the field in man coverage and the Dolphins are not getting off of the coverage. In the game the Dolphins are running alot of 11 personnel so as to get the Broncos out of their base 4-3 package for two reasons IMO. One it allows the team to run the ball a little bit better (and their front played very well in that game) but it also creates matchups that the Dolphins have to win against a shell/man scheme. If the team isn’t running the ball effectively the defense is free to allocate what resources they need to take Marshall and Bess away. Otherwise the Dolphins can’t hurt them. Dennis Allen will take D.J. Williams and Wesley Woodyard (Joe Mays only saw limited action in the game because he is their MLB and doesn’t play in their base Nickel package) in man coverage against Anothony Fasano and Charles Clay all day long, as he will against Hartline with Goodman. So they can do what they need to in coverage for the most part against Bess and Hartline. Essentially, what they did is put Wilhite on Bess in both press man and off (they like to play off, 5 yards depth with inside leverage from the Nickel corner) and shook up between Bracket coverage on Marhsall and man with Bailey. This man coverage further freed up their safeties (Carter and Dawkins) to play shell coverage as well as implement pressure scheme. Bess really struggled against Wilhite and I give the kid credit, Bess couldn’t seperate on him in man and whenever he made a catch, Wilhite was right on him (and I didn’t think also that Bess had the same explosion in and out of his breaks in 2011 as past seasons but whatever). Had Bess been winning that matchup though, they simply could have come down on him harder because they had the free pieces to do it. As a result the offense did a whole lot of nothing and really made significant yardage only against their Tampa-2 zone scheme (and some Cover-3) that they also played. In man the offense did nothing.
We can use other examples, but the Eagles game is the most poignant. Once injuries were sustained to the interior of the line the teams running game went stagnant and did Juan Castillo bring it. All of a sudden Asomugha is now on Bess, Marshall is being bracketed every play and Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen are playing 7-8 yards of depth on every snap.
This team is too reliant upon pieces working. The moves to the interior of the line helped the running game dramatically in 2011, but only improved the offense by three slots (27 to 24 in YPP) because the team still has critical personnel problems at receiver. Of everything the Dolphins present they can cover it all in man, except Bess and Marshall depending on their personnel. If the team is struggling to run the ball, the coverages that the Dolphins see will handcuff the team.
The offense desperately needs explosion. Wide receiver is an issue that has to be addressed.
civwarbuff - February 7, 2012
Miami will be thin at a few positions.
Miami would be fine at OLB with Dansby and Burnett, but we still would need a little bit of depth there. We would also need help at MLB as well. Joe Mays could be a cheap and quality options.
As for the DL, Miami should be fine with Starks, Odrick, and McDaniel. DE is a bit more of a concern because of the need for an opposite DE to start and depth at the position. Obviously, Misi will fit into the equation at either DE or LB and Miami can resign Merling for cheap for DE depth. Merling was more of a standout as a 4-3 DE and while he probably won’t be a very good starter, he could be used for solid depth.
Would Miami be thin? Yes, but we’d still have a pretty darn good starting unit. Even if we stayed in the 3-4, Miami would be thin at OLB, NT, and ILB behind Dansby and Burnett. I don’t see our unit being much more thin than we would’ve been had we stayed in the 3-4. The other benefit is that generally it is easier finding 4-3 players than 3-4 players. Trying to find 3-4 NTs and 3-4 OLBs are often hard and also expensive in free agency. We’re thin for now, but I have a feeling we’ll be more comfortable with the front seven come May when free agency is getting settled and we know who we drafted.
As for WR, I do think there are some needs, but I wouldn’t point them out as critical. Hartline is just an average #2, but we still do have some offensive weapons. With different schemes our players can be used in different ways. Philbin could use Bush a whole lot more in the passing game than Sparano did and that alone would adjust how defenses approach Miami. Subtle moves can pay dividends. Upgrading our QB would make defenses fear our offense much more than upgrading our #2 WR. QB is the bigger need.
Finhead83 - February 8, 2012
Ok allow me to clarify on my position. This is going to be long.
Above I was talking with both Jason and Dolphinfan4lyfe about the state of the Dolphins roster and about what potential moves could be made in Free Agency e.t.c.
Currently the Dolphins are about $9 Million, at about $111 Million after factoring in Dead Money, under the soft cap of $120M, with the cap going to slightly rise in 2012. People over the web have speculated about how much that figure will rise (to $121M-$124M e.t.c.) but anyways. So, excluding the $3M that teams can allocate to increase their cap space, lets say the Dolphins are $9M approx under the cap prior to player cuts/restructured deals e.t.c. That isn’t terrible shape.
A little while back me and The Earl were discussing the possibility of moving up in the draft (and obviously it is a hard discussion because the cost will be dictated by the competition) with St. Louis at #2. The offer that he threw out was to swap our current firsts, trade next years 1st (2013), current 2nd, 5th, Starks and Smith. Granted this is very cheap to move up 7 spots to the second pick in the draft. At the time though I was apprehensive because I believed that he was underestimating the impact of the trade as I explained. Remember that the Dolphins were an unusual 3-4 team in that they relied on their Defensive Ends to generate the majority of the Dolphins pass. That is just how the team is built. Koa Misi, despite some good qualities doesn’t generate any real pass rush, Jason Taylor was a situational player only and Jason Trusnik was predominantly a ST’s player. I talked about the switch to 4-3 above (before the idiotic comment moment lol, if you read my comments above excluding that one you will see that I know we are going to the 4-3. Braindead I was!) I said:
“Let me start with this before I get to your point. The switch to the 4-3 definitely changes the Dolphins position.
Me and Joel debated a little bit, prior to the switch whether or not the Dolphins should make the transition. He was completely for it, I had some reservations but believed (and do still) that it is a move the Dolphins are capable of making from a personnel standpoint and the required pieces for the switch are equal, possibly less than what is required in maintaining the 3-4. If the Dolphins were to make the switch, this is the year. Paul Soliai and Kendall Langford were two of the three primary defensive pieces in the front seven who don’t have a place in the 4-3 defense (the other is Misi). Langford is a 5 tech player only, he doesn’t have the build to play in a 4-3 line, he doesn’t generate pass rush and the values of his gap discipline and lateral movement are eliminated in that base defense. Last year the Dolphins implemented a few 4-3 formations (although not many) and Langford didnt play in them.
So you are asking, why are you telling me what I already know? It ties in to both Coples and RG3 (as well as Ingram). With the switch to the 4-3 defense the Dolphins are suddenly very thin on the Defensive Line. We talk about Coples and Ingram, they are both great players and help solve the Defensive End problem. Those picks though are improving an area of the team that was very strong in 2011, at least as McDaniel and Merling returned and Jared Odrick continuously improved throughout the year. The Dolphins were an unusual 3-4 team anyways in that they have players at Defensive End who can play both 3 and 5 tech, had great rotation and who the team depended on for pass rush. As the Defensive rotation improved throughout the season, the Dolphins began to generate pass rush, it didn’t come from the Outside LInebacker position. If Ingram or Coples come to Miami that situation will (hopefully) remain the same even though players who were vital in generating pass rush will have to play DT (Starks and McDaniel). So the Dolphins will be replenishing that pass rush with those picks."
On a seperate note though I talked about a conversation I had with The Earl. I said:
“RG3 is a different story. The Earl and I talked about moving up in the Week 16 postgame thread after the Pats game. He threw out swapping current 1st round picks, giving the Rams first round pick from 2013, second round pick from 2012, 5th from 2012, Starks and Smith as a great trade for the Dolphins if the Rams were to take it. Even though this is very cheap to move up to 2, I was hesitant at the time because the Dolphins were so dependent on the Ends for generating pass rush. If Starks left, I feared the impact would be bigger than he thought it would”
However if the Rams accept that trade the Dolphins have to make it if they believe in Griffin. Quarterback is the most important position in sports and that cost is nothing for a potential Top-10 Quarterback. Matt Moore’s struggles are too consistant and a the cap hit for RG3 will be minimal because of the current CBA. His deal will be similar to Newton’s at #1 last year with $22M total over 4 years with in excess of $20M guaranteed (which is prorated over the extent of the deal.)
Then I said to Dolphinfan4lyfe:
“I am going to disagree with you Dolphinfan4lyfe.
“I think Jeff Ireland greatly improved the Offensive LIne from 2010 to 2011 with the Pouncey pick and the move of Vernon Carey to Right Guard. The play of the interior of the line was a major reason of thedrastic improvment in the running game (along with Reggie Bush, although only Bush was a very sucessful move, Thomas was far less successful). As I often say, the unit was the most unfairly maligned on the team. Vernon Carey hitting Free Agency complicates the matter, and the Right Guard position has to be dealt with if he doesn’t return and obviously Marc Colombo at Right Tackle severly detracts from what the rest of the unit accomplished in 2011. However even if RG and RT are not adequately addressed, the team will be in a similar position from a Line standpoint as they were in 2010. It will affect the Running game dramatically, which I din’t want and the issues in pass protection will remain at RT.
The more serious issue though is at Receiver and Tight End. The primary issue on the Dolphins offense (outside of inconsistant play at Quarterback) is the lack of seperation and explosion this team gets at those positions. The Dolphins offense in 2011 was predicated on the success of the running game. Against clubs that the Dolphins struggled to run against (Dallas, Washington, Denver e.t.c.) the offense struggled against. Allow me to use the Eagles game. As soon as the Dolphins suffered injuries to the interior of the offensive line and as a result the running game began to struggle, Jaun Castillo began to press his safeties to within 7-8 yards depth of the line, bracketing Marshall every play and putting their best corner Asomugha on Bess, who unlike 2010 won the matchup (and many more corners won that matchup in 2011 than prior season but that is another issue). As a result the offense went dead.
The primary difference between the 2010 Dolphins offense and the 2011 Dolphins offense were the improvements to the interior of the line and the major move at runningback as a result the running game improved from 28th in the league in 2010 YPP to 11th. The running game ultimately improved the offense from 2010 to 2011 (27th to 24th in total offense, YPP). However if the Dolphins can’t run the ball in a game, the offense was back to where it was down the stretch of 2010 (possibly worse because Bess had so much more trouble getting seperation in and out of his breaks) As a result the defense will condense the field, run the coverages they want on Marshall and come down on Bess (who struggled against multiple Nickel corners this season alone in man getting seperation including Patterson, Wilhite e.t.c.).
This is absolutely vital for the team to deal with.”
Which leads me to the Defense point about the current state of the NFL:
“The defense certainly would be stripped to it’s bare necessities. Is this unfortunate, of course it is and the unit’s production would be drastically worse in 2012. However that is the way the league is going. The Green Bay Packers gave up more yards than any other defense in the history of the NFL from scrimmage, 411.6 YPG (NFL record), including 6.3 YPP (tied for 32nd in the league with the Bucs). However they were a specialized defense. An overly-aggressive scheme that gives up massive yardage, in exchange for generating turnovers and a unit trained to limit points in the red zone. Red Zone defense and Turnover margin became the unit’s goals for the 2011 season. Jason, that club went 15-1, the best record in the leaugue. The Patriots played the same type of defense in 2011 with parity across the board in statistics. I am not saying that there is one model to success, nor that defense is irrelevant, but that ceding talent on that side of the ball whilst maintaining core pieces and adopting an aggressive scheme (and specializing in key areas, Red Zone, turnovers) in exchange for tremendous explosion on offense is a viable approach and is winning teams games in the NFL.”
Lastly was the point about desperately needing explosion at receiver.
civwarbuff - February 8, 2012
I am sorry for that being so long.
That’s what I was saying above though that underlies this discussion.
So with that out there you know that after Quarterback I see receiver as the Dolphins next critical area of need. Hartline is a very mediocre receiver who most teams can cover in man, Gates is situational player only who has vast limitations outside of his vertical (top-end) speed. Anothony Fasano is a very mediocre TE who many teams can also cover in man with Linebackers, Clay is a situational player who brought some explosion to the offense, but only is beneficial in certain personnel groupings and Jeron Mastrud is an in-line blocking Tight End. Roberto Wallace and Marlon Moore both finished the season on IR. You talked about using Reggie Bush in different ways, but A.) He is this teams only very talented Running back and B.) adjustments to scheme only get you so far in the NFL, you need the personnel.
That our offenses success is so predicated upon running the ball needs to change. Teams can’t run these coverages against Marshall and Bess. Despite holes opening on defense (and more of them if the Dolphins allocate cap space how I think that they will), these are the critical needs. After Quarterback I see this as the teams #2 issue when considering positional value.
civwarbuff - February 8, 2012
My part won't be as long!
While I still have Miami around $114 million in cap allocated to 2012 with dead money included, I did hear their rollover amount nearly doubled my estimations and Miami can roll over $9 million of cap space in 2012, bringing the estimated salary cap to $129.3 million (it seems the NFL set cap may not go up at all). That right there would allow Miami to be $15 million under, more than my estimates. Good news, Miami. With that in mind, I would prefer Miami to not have to use the $1.5 million exception on the players because even though it gives us cap relief now, it only subtracts cap space from 2013 and 2014. I’d only use it if absolutely necessary and right now, it doesn’t seem like it is.
As for trading Starks and Smith in a trade to move up, I just don’t see it happening. While the trade doesn’t appear so unbalanced, Miami would be losing two starters they can’t guarantee they can replace, especially with Smith. Maybe if Miami signed a veteran CB in free agency, but I just think this move is doubtful. While I do agree the trade would have some impact and that Miami did well with getting pressure from the DL in a 3-4 alignment, which is a rare feat. Starks would have some impact, but it would more depend on the play of Odrick and McDaniel. Also, I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility that Miami keeps Odrick at DE and goes into 2012 with Wake/Odrick at DE and Starks/McDaniel at DT. That would make Miami’s DTs much more thin and Starks much more vital to Miami’s plans. As unlikely as that is, I think Smith has the bigger negative impact because neither Jimmy Wilson or Nolan Carroll are ready to be a #2 CB.
As for WR and TE, I do agree that Hartline is just an average #2 WR. Fasano isn’t a bad TE, even in the receiving game, and it’s unlikely we’ll find an upgrade in free agency. I don’t think Jermichael Finley will be available and Fred Davis is one drug violation away from a 16 game suspension. Miami may have to trade up to get that TE in the first round, but that pick could conceivably cost Miami a 2013 second rounder, maybe even a first depending on how far they move up. Is Dwayne Allen still very enticing if Miami has to give up two second round picks or a first and second for him? For Gates, I don’t believe his potential is limited. I don’t believe him ready to be ready for the #2 starting job, but Philbin does like to open up the offense. Even as a #4 WR this year, look for Gates to get more time. While teams can often play Hartline in man coverage without much problem, but he does have some speed. We’ve seen from Hartline that if you do not use a safety to help over the top, he at times will bite that team in the butt. I don’t think the safeties will have a complete neglect for Miami’s abilities to pass deep. I’m all for replacing Hartline if it is an option and I’ve said for months how much I like Mario Manningham as a potential free agent pickup. Charles Clay does provide a lot of LBs some problems in the passing game. He showed good ability to separate from the LBs last year and I think you underrate Fasano’s ability to separate a bit as well.
As for Bush, he is our best RB, but using him in the passing game doesn’t mean we’d have to have Daniel Thomas back there, but that is an option. If Miami uses Bush in a single back formation and motions him into the slot, teams will have to make a tough decision in whether they stay in their base defense and try to to use a LB to cover Bush or go into a nickel or dime formation. If they stay in the base defense, Miami has a huge advantage with Bush on a LB. If the team goes into a nickel or dime formation, than the Dolphins have another advantage in that if they call a run, they may only have 5 or 6 personnel in the box. Subtle changes in scheme, big payoff. Now join me in a little hypothetical scenario. Miami comes out in a 2-TE formation with Bush as the lone RB. What would a team do? They can try their base formation, where they cover Clay and Bush with LBs. Risky. They can try a nickel formation, which gives us an advantage in the run. A nickel formation against that still allows Miami to see either Bush or Clay, probably Bush, matched up alone with a RB. Advantage, still Miami. You see it as Miami has a problem because without a deep threat, the safeties won’t play deep. I see it as with some matchups, Miami can try to make it a nightmare for teams in the middle of the field.
Finhead83 - February 9, 2012
I love hypotheticals
I’d stick with my base defense, with a run blitz called. Depending on the formation being used (3-4 or 4-3), would dictate the assignments. But basically it would be MLB blitzing, OLBs in man coverage of TEs, FS in deep coverage, SS playing a short zone in the middle, and CBs playing press coverage on the outside.
If the play is a run, I’ve got my OLBs containing the edges, as well as my CBs already at the LOS, and my MLB hitting the holes to make a play in the backfield.
If it’s a pass play, I’ve got man-to man coverage all around with oevr the middle and deep help by the safeties. Since it’s a run blitz called, the MLB have to make a decision based on what the RB does. If he stays to block, they rush the QB. If he goes out on a route, they pursue in coverage.
From that point it comes down to who wins at the LOS. While Bush will have the advantage over the MLB, the extra time it will take for him to make him pay is more time the rush has to get at the QB.
luvs2drnk - February 10, 2012
Even then, there is still a lot Miami can do with their offense based on players
Marshall matched up man-to-man is a good matchup for a QB to take a chance on, especially if he goes deep and the SS is drawn in. I’ll also take Bush matched up on a MLB any day. While he may not run 20 yards down the field and then make the catch, Bush only need a few moments to separate from the MLB and he can run for a lot longer after the catch.
Just saying that while Miami could use an upgrade at #2 WR and I’d fully support it, I wouldn’t classify the need as critical or think it’s one of our biggest holes.
Finhead83 - February 10, 2012
While Marshall is techincally one-on-one.....
The CB guarding him has middle support by the SS and deep help with the FS. Without a legit deep threat on the other side, the FS can slide his coverage towards Marshall allowing the Cb to play underneath. Effectively eliminating Marshall from the play. Yes, Bush has the advantage over the MLB, but it would be most likely for a minimal gain. Due to the run blitz there’s pressure coming, which minimizes the QBs options of throws to Bush. Meaning the most likely option is the flat route. But since the CBs are playing press coverage, they’ll already be at the LOS to try and make the tackle.
I wouldn’t say our need for a 2nd WR is critical, but I would say it is one of our top 5 needs.
luvs2drnk - February 13, 2012
I said that I was sorry for the post being so long!
Ok I also am going to begin with the hypothetical. Here is the thing, it depends what team the Dolphins are playing against. Teams in the NFL prepare predicated upon their personnel and make decisions based on those matchups. Secondly, this is something the Dolphins did do in 2011 and with more frequency as the offense grew under Matt Moore. For better or worse, a change at Quarterback is the most dramatic thing a team can go through and it things have to be introduced only as the Quarterback becomes more calm in terms of making the calls, reads e.t.c. Lastky is the issue of what the Dolphins receiver personnel is (Marshall and Hartline:base grouping….Split-End and Marshall presumably Bess….?)
I am going to use Kansas City’s personnel for the heck of it because the Dolphins beat them so many times in the game. Kansas City came out with an extremely aggressive gameplan. Essentially they were going to double someone for the majority of the game, whether it was Marshall or Bess. They spent alot of the game either chipping Bess, running in-out coverage (either with Carr, Washington and a linebacker or the safety who they were playing in the box. With Marshall he was either being singled by Flowers, they were bracketing him with their “radar” safety or they were rolling him. I loved the way Daboll approached the game. He knew they were going to run single-high almost all game (and usually Cover-1 from that) to squeeze the field and allocate a player to allow for doubling either Bess or Marshall if they decided to do that. Daboll attacked this in a few ways. One was to attack them using pick routes, so as luring man coverage into the middle of the field and freeing up Fasano and Clay from man (usually being covered by Belcher and Derrick Johnson). Another was to utilize Bush. The Dolphins on mutliple occasions spread them out with Bush which allowed for more speration inside against man. The Dolphins also would bring him across the formation and seal the man coverage in the congestion, which allowed for the huge end around play. Late in the game they started to come out of strict man and double coverage and run more zone where the Dolphins pounded the ball at them and finished the game. However, Bush still wasn’t a large factor in the passing game because they passed him off to corners as he went wide. In other words say the Dolphins are in 12 personnel, Bush goes to the slot and Hartline is wide. They pass Carr off onto Bush and run off coverage and press the safety (usually with Donald Washington and Kendrick Lewis single high) onto Hartline. If it’s Bess slot and Marshall wide they will pass off the corner (say Carr) and then double Bess with the Outside LInebacker. Simple adjustments for an NFL defense. In 2011, the Dolphins offense survived if it coulf beat man. If the Dolphins were struggling against your man coverage (and couldn’t get you out of it) the offense as a whole struggled. The Chiefs game was a great example of how the Dolphins would do so. The Dolphins did do this and increasingly more so as the year went on. It poses some problems but wasn’t the key factor in beating teams man coverage.
As for Fasano and Hartline I don’t dislike either, however they are very meiocre starters. I don’t see football as a plug and play sport so I have never liked the term upgrade. It implies removing someone from the roster. I am ok with Hartline in the rotation and I think he would be valuable in the rotation. However he saw man coverage all season, often against teams number 2 or 3 corners depending upon if their Nickel could play outside, how they approached Bess e.t.c. and made some plays. I thought in the second Buffalo game Aaron Williams had fits against him in the single-high coverage they were running and Hartline made some big plays. However, Hartline can’t seperate against most teams number 2 corner. I come back to the Denver game, a great example of a man/pressure scheme. Goodman annihilated Hartline, plain and simple. Bess struggled to get off of Wilhites coverage and Wilhite was able to get him on the ground time and again right after catch, but Goodman simply washed Hartline away. He had two receptions for 29 yards on the game against strict man to man almost every snap. I am okay with him in the rotation but he is a very mediocre receiver against teams number 2 corners. As for Clay I see some good things in him. The kid has some burst (he even made two big plays against Flowers in U-personnel in that contest) and obviously the huge catch in the first Buffalo game, I see him only getting better. However, he is a situational player still and wasn’t an adequate solution for a dire need in Miami in 2011. As for Fasano, he is a smart player, a good (not great blocker) and runs sharp routes (noticably his ability to diagnose shell coverage and run seam routes), but he isn’t going to seperate against the talent and athleticism of NFL linebackers often in man and doesn’t.
Jermicheal Finley will probably be tagged but we disagree on Fred Davis. I don’t care that the kid is close to a suspension (very close), it will only reduce teams interest and he will be underpaid. The kid is explosive. If you watched the Redskins play alot this season, he helped Rex Grossman and John Beck get out of real jams time and again. So when the Dolphins played them, we focused alot on him, chipped him coming off of the line and really got in his face redirecting routes. Nolan had to put special emphasis on him and that would be immeasurable for the Dolphins offense. Fasano will cause the Dolphins a cap hit of $4.375M in 2012 which is entirely unacceptable for his value.
As for Gates, he was another inadequate solution to a serious problem in Miami and he very well may be cut in camp next year.
civwarbuff - February 10, 2012
As for the cap that is also more than I thought.
The numbers are everywhere. I have the Dolphins at $111M but…..if you want we can compare figures and I have heard numbers everywhere between $108M-$116M. If at $111M, at $9M approx. under the soft cap I was assuming the Dolphins would be in the $12M range of spending money in 2012 including the money that can allocated from future cap years (which I thought was $3M, not $1.5M???) because despite knowing that the Dolphins were $9M under the cap in 2011, I compeltely forgot that the money could be rolled over in its entirity to the 2012 cap. This will be the first time in NFL history that this happens. Its all gotten weird lol. :)
civwarbuff - February 10, 2012
Last thing.
As for the soft cap not increasing, I just simply don’t know. I will leave that to you. I have heard nothing either way.
civwarbuff - February 10, 2012
As Finhead pointed out. Somehow I said that the Dolphins are switching to the 3-4.
Obviously I know that the Dolphins are going to the 4-3 defense. As for the hole at OLB it depends where Dansby and Burnett play. Dansby played OLB in Arizona in the 3-4 defense and we can talk about that all we want.
That wasn’t the point though. Thats embarrasing lol.
civwarbuff - February 7, 2012
I did it again. Dansby at OLB in the 4-3 in Arizona.
civwarbuff - February 7, 2012
Dansby played OLB in the Arizona 4-3 defense.
Finhead83 - February 8, 2012
Nevermind... Saw the correction. lol
Finhead83 - February 8, 2012
Now you're more on the mark with Richardson.
Although I think it’s more likely he slides down between 16-20. I just don’t see Holmgren going RB with that high of a pick with so many holes to fill, and RB being the easiest one to fill with a late round pick or UDFA. Other than that I’d say this is a pretty good mock draft.
luvs2drnk - February 7, 2012
Seattle has the ability to take many players
But Richardson sets them up with their best RB since Shaun Alexander. Holmgren is also in Cleveland, but he wouldn’t shy away from a RB.
Finhead83 - February 7, 2012
I know Holmgren is in Cleveland.
And I also know he’s only taken one RB ever in the first round. The aforementioned Shaun Alexander with the 19th pick in 2000. That’s why I’m fairly positive there’s little to no chance Cleveland drafts Richardson at number 4.
As for Seattle, I’m not so sure. That’s why I think Richardson will drop to 16-20. Bengals and possibly the Bears (depending on what they do with Forte) seem like the most likely destination for Richardson.
luvs2drnk - February 8, 2012
I have begun to expect the unexpected in the NFL. After freaking Parcells fell in love with Pat White and then
drafted him I learned that ANYTHING can happen.
texascowpunk - February 8, 2012
But even Parcells followed his historical trends while with the Dolphins.
I even did a post about it. I believe Holmgren is of the same mold when it comes to GM duties. Not in picking the same type of players, but of being consistent in who they pick and when.
luvs2drnk - February 9, 2012
Chicago already said Forte is not hitting FA.
Finhead83 - February 8, 2012
That could change if they think they can realistically get Richardson at 19.
Which is a possibility, although I’m positive they would have to trade up ahead of Cincy. But it’s still cheaper than what it’s going to cost them to keep Forte.
luvs2drnk - February 9, 2012
I don't think Chicago is capable of doing so without trading up quite a few spots.
If Richardson got down to around #15 or so in the draft, you’ll see a lot of teams in the 20s looking to possibly move up and get him. Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New England, and Cincy would all love to get their hands on Richardson.
With as much of a longshot as it is for Richardson to fall very far, it’s not a gamble Chicago would make in letting Forte walk and then losing out on Richardson. With a player like Forte, I don’t doubt Chicago when they say he won’t hit FA.
Finhead83 - February 9, 2012
With a player like Forte.......
He never should have gotten this far into FA, but he’s a couple weeks away from hitting the open market. So Chicago doesn’t seem in that much of a hurry to keep him.
As for competition with other teams for the services of Richardson, I think your overestimating the value of RB in the NFL. No way Pittsburgh trades up for him, not their style, especially for a RB. Same thing goes for NE as well, they’d love to have him, but only if he falls all the way to them which isn’t going to happen.
So while I’m simply stating it’s a possibility of Chicago trading up, depending of course of Forte, my bet is on Richardson landing in Cincy with either their 17th or 21st pick. Cleveland won’t be trading up their second first round pick to get him. Holmgren won’t do it. Too many other holes to fill that are of greater importance.
luvs2drnk - February 10, 2012
Forte never really did hit FA
I’m sure he’s negotiating with the team, but Chicago doesn’t need a sense of urgency if they’re planning on using the franchise tag on him.
I don’t believe I’m overestimating the value of a RB in the NFL at all. People see Arian Foster and think they’re a dime a dozen. They aren’t. There are plenty of late round draft picks that become solid RBs, but there are also plenty of those RBs that turn out to be nothing. You don’t think teams like New England, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay wouldn’t love to have a player like that on their roster? None of those teams would be shy to make a move. Pittsburgh even said they’re going back to the ground game even more. No better player to do it with.
Cleveland won’t have to trade up from their second round pick. They already have another first round pick and can do it. Cleveland would love to get both him and RG3 and I don’t think they’d pass on the move.
Finhead83 - February 10, 2012
Forte may not hit FA, but he's not signed as of yet either.
I actually said Cleveland’s second first round pick, not their 2nd round pick. And unless Richardson falls to when Cleveland is drafting their 2nd time in the first round, there’s no way Holmgren trades up to get him.
People don’t just see Arian Foster. They see MJD, Turner, Rice, McCoy, Gore, Charles, Bradshaw, and Grant. All of who accounted for 15 of the 30 top rushing spots the past 3 years. That’s 50% of the top rushers were drafted outside the first round. I could go even further to the top 20 per year and I gurantee you that number will increase. That number would basically encompass every 1000 yard rusher the past 3 years, and it’s very likely over 60% will have been drafted in the 2nd round or later.
You mention teams like NE, Pittsburgh, and GB. Sure they’d love to have a player like that on their team. But as each team has proven over the past 10 years. None of them are going to trade up or even draft a RB higher than the 21st pick of the first round. Why? Because they find people like Corey Dillon (NE) in FA, or Willie Parker (PITT) and Ryan Grant in UDFA.
luvs2drnk - February 13, 2012
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