The Phinsider

I see the Dolphins trading down this draft

get Tannehill in late-first round, developing him behind Flynn
and having 2 2nd round’s will get a decent OT and a pass-rusher

David Leal - February 2, 2012 reply

I just cant imagine not planning on starting a 1st round draft pick

I feel like if you are going to use the first round pick, then it is imparitve to start that person day one (if they are capable). I know Rodgers sat for years behing Faverererer, but Rodgers is something much more special than Tannehil.

If we sign Flynn, the only logical choices for me would be to either draft a RT with our first pick, aor to trade the pick for another first rounder for next year. If we grab an additional first rounder for next year and Flynn is a disappointment, then we could have a little more bargaining power to land Barkley next year.

We're fine with Moore in this scenario. Could also bring in Tyler Wilson and train him up.

I can see us taking Tannehill only if we get Manning

Patssuck456 - February 5, 2012 reply

flynn is in

whats all this noise about tannehill? the guy threw 29 tds this yr…his 4th yr….but also threw 15 picks..i dont see him earning a 2nd rd pick with those stats…keep moore and sign flynn…if neither leads the dolphins to the playoffs, or just plain suck…then use next years draft to get a 1st rd qb

paul wall 1962 - February 2, 2012 reply

"whats all this noise about [Flynn]?"

The dude hasn’t done much either… what four starts maybe, mostly mop duty or scrub games? What tools does he have that makes him so valuable?

I see the percentages higher that he’s an AJ Feely than a Tom Brady….

If you "believe" in him so much that you draft his replacement a month after you sign him,

then you are paying too much.

The difference - this time - with a back-up QB

Is that our coach has worked with Flynn day in and day out, so you would assume (i know!) that if we make a run at Flynn that there is strong belief that he would be the man.

samalex - February 2, 2012 reply

I'd be happy if we went for Flynn.

He seems very confident. I never thought Henne held himself very well but this guy does. Check out his interviews. If we do sign him, we need to give him the best possible chance to succeed. Draft heavy on offence. Protection and weapons.

wild zion beaver - February 2, 2012 reply

Can you put an option for ... Depends on if Philbin wants him?

I think he could be the guy, but we really haven’t seen enough yet. One person that has seen enough is our own head coach Joe Philbin. If he is interested in bringing the kid over here I am excited to do that. Keep in mind that not only did he get to see this kid EVERY single day in practice… he also got to see him up against Aaron Rodgers as a sort of gauge. If this guy was nothing more than a backup, he would look like a backup next to Rodgers. But if this kid is the real deal, he would be able to measure him up against one of the best in the game right now, on a daily basis. If he really thinks this is the guy, I am totally comfortable with giving him a shot, even if it means signing a big contract. After all, its not my money anyway!

Jason Scott_90 - February 2, 2012 reply

I'd like to excercise my option to rec all over that comment.

I'm_an_F18_bro - February 2, 2012 reply

Agreed...

Jason has hit it on the head… Being able to measure him against rogers on a dialy basis – that’s what should make this decision easy. Philbin should already know if he is good enough to be a starter in this league….and I am 100% behind the new coach if he signs flynn.
If he dosent – then we all have to assume that Philbin knows something…
also I want to see if we go after a few PACKERS to help this team out… they have a lot of depth – so much better than picking up OLD COWBOYS…glad those days are over !

62Lou - February 2, 2012 reply

Jeezy Hes gonna need "a semi" to lug all that hardwere down what 3 divisional rings, 1confrance ring & that superbowl ring!

Reggie Bush; is not the only one any more, (opps) why dont i just go fly a kite!

I disagree

that a professional coach in the NFL needs to have an elite QB on the team in order to evaluate a QB prospect. I’m sure anybody worth employing would be able to spot greatness or suckitude in a vacuum.

True dat...

Agreed

Philbin should know more than anyone. If he wants Flynn, get him.

NNYPhinPhan - February 2, 2012 reply

Sign on the dotted Line!

I feel he gives us immediate chance for success aka the The Philbin factor, Philbin knows him & he wants him our team that’s all I need to know. A strong QB – coach relationship is always key, Flynn seems to have those “immeasurable s”.
+ giving up no draft picks…makes all the sense in the world to me!

MassFinFan65 - February 2, 2012 reply

Flynn ain't the answer... the Philbin factor?

What do you know what Philbin wants, thinks, or is gonna do?

Hey your entitled to your opinion but I don't agree!

He offers the best chance at success when considering….no loss of draft picks, when can now draft a legit RG to build a stronger line, find help with our D-Line/pass rusher, possible TE as well because we didn’t give up draft picks!!
If Philbin knows/likes Flynn…that is more then OK with me!!
No I don’t know what Philbin is going to do…but if he goes after Flynn & the two know how to work together with the SAME system = many completed passes!!

MassFinFan65 - February 2, 2012 reply

what if Philbin knows this guy is a screw up...

What if he knows he isn’t even close to a franchise QB… What if he had to do specific things to make sure he could execute the game plan. You really don’t know do you? Lets wait to see if he is actually interested first…

Jason Scott_90 - February 3, 2012 reply

But if we do that we'll have nothing to talk about for a month!!

BahamaDolfan - February 3, 2012 reply

If philbin wants him then I do also.

He knows him well. We are obviously not gettting luck or rg

dolfan52 - February 2, 2012 reply

Here's my view

Joe Philbin worked with him in GB. He knows how good Matt Flynn is. If Philbin thinks that he is going to be a franchise QB, then I’m all for it. That’s one big benefit of having Philbin as a HC.

PhinPhan910 - February 2, 2012 reply

I'm not hailing him the next Peyton/Brady

but he is intriguing from the sample we have seen. Yes, two full games and some fillers, but he looked good in those two games. A full season of starts should sharpen his skills. I think the bigger question is does he have a higher ceiling than we’ve seen? Coach PhilPhin knows this and has surrounded himself with a staff capable of bringing it out. He is already familiar with the offensive style and nuances that PhilPhin is speculated to bring. If he is desirable in the eyes of PhilPhin, comes for less than $9 mill average and doesn’t clash with the locker room I say pull the trigger. Give ourselves an out in three years, schedule him for a bonus in four. If he’s still here, he obviously earned it.

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

So did AJ Feely... lol

Ok

and if that’s the case he’s gone in three years. We swap in Tennahill (or whatever other big name we pull outta the hat) and move on with football. The only “SURE” thing is someone’s elite leftovers that wouldn’t be available if he was still elite (not just this year, I mean in general). You either draft a guy, pick a guy in FA, trade for a guy or develop a guy. Which one is a guaranteed success?

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

when did Tennahill become a big name?

He’s kinda just another name, that people fall in love every year… but he’s not anyone that excited anybody until well after the college season ended… and people start looking for (and hallucinating) for something that might not really be there

I'm not big on Tennahill (for the record)

but because of the draft year, he is the next apparent QB in line. So in that regard, he is the big name. Not my personal opinion, just facts of the perception.

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

So why wouldn't you be on board with going and getting a big name whatever the cost?

Jason Scott_90 - February 3, 2012 reply

That's not true at all.

Yes, the magic mushroom theory... lol

So, with your analysis, anyone enamored with Luck and RGIII is in the same hallucination….?

Ahhh, but RGIII and Luck were always considered high prospects in the draft.

Tannehill didn’t become a favorite until after guys decided not to come out… otherwise he’d be considered a much later pick….am I right?

Yes... you're right. (looks at shoes)

Two dropped out (Barkley and the other guy.. lol), so he moved up two spots. But he wasn’t ever out of the second round though, right?

I don't know....I remember there being concern

that he had only 1 full season as a QB, and threw a bunch of picks?

I’m not a College Football Guy, but I am all about the draft, so when I hear the NFL guys talking about College prospects, thats what I heard. But he was never mentioned in the same breath as the Premiere guys

He's still not a premiere guy

He’s just the best option realistically available. He’s was never expected to start right away.

So it's Luck, or RGIII or nothing...

I hope it’s RGIII, but it’ll take some creativity to pull that off….

Northern Fin Fan - February 2, 2012 reply

Give them

the hallucinogen mushroom pizzas on draft day, they need to pull off that trade!

PhinNomenol! - February 3, 2012 via Android app reply

In the imperfect world of Football prognostication

It seems that this deal has the best chance of success.. Which is probably only 40% at most. I still say do it. It’s at least the same chance as Luck being a franchise Qb, and we would never get him anyway.

agreed, but Flynn I think has a better a chance of working out than a rookie QB

Dolphins101 - February 2, 2012 reply

Flynn is a rookie QB

that will be payed like a franchise QB.

Do it!

On top of the above mentioned Philbin connection is the fact he would actually be ahead of the rest of the team on the new offense (for the most part).

He has a chance to become the number 1 guy for a familiar coach in a familiar system in a situation where he’s automatically set up to be the leader….I don’t know how, short of bringing Jennings and Findley along as well, you could create a better set-up for a young QB.

Wait. Who's running the offense? Who's instilling what from where?

I don't know BUT

I am sure our new coach does!!!!

DAVEBUCK - February 2, 2012 reply

the thing i like is

historically, gb backup qbs have been successful. One example would be matt hasselbeck. also, flynn reminds me more of matt schaub. both of them have been semi-elite most of their careers. i think flynn is like them in a way. and do not compare him to kolb, who has actually played better in ARZ than he did in philly

AnishB15 - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

And with the 33rd pick in the 1991 draft the Atlanta Falcons select - Brett Favre, Quarterback, Southern Mississippi.

Worked out OK for Green Bay

exactly

AnishB15 - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

I don't even see how thats a close comparison.

Favre was taken in the 3rd round, and only the 3rd QB drafted that year.

Flynn was taken in the 7th, and was the 12th QB taken that year.

The Packers themselves even chose Brohm over Flynn in the same year.

Right!

And Brohm was taken in what, the second round? You’ve got a good point there. A round ahead of Farve and several ahead of Flynn. So obviously he has absolutely no point at all.

But wait…. Who’s second on the depth chart for the Packers…?

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

PhrozenPhish doesn't have a point.

But it has nothing to do with Brohm.

Favre was a backup in GB for all of 4 games. He didn’t develop in that system, and has no correlation to Flynn.

He was a backup in Atlanta

The discussion is about the value of going after another team’s back-up

It’s not a comparision it’s an example of how well it can work out.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1991/draft.htm?redir

My reply

was in sarcasm in relation to Fr8Train. I was not commenting on Phrozen’s statement.

PhinNomenol! - February 3, 2012 via Android app reply

For the record

6th pick, second round, 33rd player taken

I mis typed....should have been 2nd round...

either way he was the 3rd QB taken in that draft.

Fr8Train - February 3, 2012 reply

If there were a better option out there the choice would be more difficult

But there is no better option out there.

He knows the coach. He knows the offense. He’s young and his neck isn’t broken.

Get him.

mikem1224 - February 2, 2012 reply

Tannehill

Manning

it is very clear that Manning will becmoe available. I would take a 90% Manning over Flynn all day every day.

And since people are insinuating a 3 year plan for Flynn, why not let Manning give us three years?

You are assuming, good sir,

that Manning would even last three years. Nerve damage and neck injures are nothing trifling. And on top of that, he’s already 36 this year. Manning also cripples your ability to make pretty much ANY other FA moves this year. So if he goes down a la CP10/Henne, you are really screwed (good thing we don’t play San Diego this year). And I know any QB can get hurt, his damage would require less than a stellar back cracker to do that damage though. His arm could get weak suddenly and he is no longer Manning (IF he’s Manning now).

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

For 1000th time, Manning's "nerve damage and neck injury" is a non-serious, non-career threatening injury.

It’s a pinched nerve, for chrissake. And if he were to go down a la CP10/Henne, we have the exact same QB on staff to replace him that we had last year.

You are kidding right?

Manning had a procedure called a single level anterior fusion. That involves making an incision at the front of the neck, without cutting any muscles. The disc is removed from the nerve and spinal cord. The surgeon then fills the open disc space with a bone graft. The graft acts as a bridge between the two vertebrae, creating a spinal fusion. Metal plates and screws are often used to hold the bone graft and vertebrae together.

While the issue he had was a “pinched nerve”, anytime you remove a disc from your spine… lets go ahead and call that a major surgery shall we?

Let's not.

Spinal fusion is just not that big of a deal.

And besides that, the spinal fusion has already healed. The only thing Manning is working on now is recovering strength in his throwing arm.

Medical experts have said linebackers have come back and played with what manning had.

That’s good enough for me.

wild zion beaver - February 2, 2012 reply

Understand that....

but can you tell me a linebacker that had this surgery switch possitions to be a QB. Also another thing is how well did this player play as a QB? Your talking about 2 different possitions on the feild of play, and who you talk to on this site QB, is an area that you don’t want to take a chance on. Unless he can continually throw passes down the feild with out lossing strrength/felling in the arm then I’m on the side lines about the QB.

phinfansc1980 - February 3, 2012 reply

Are you serious?

ANYTIME you news with the neck, spine or brain, you are dealing with a dangerous situation first of all. Then add in the fact that instead of “holding” a guy or pushing him (linebacker), you are dealing with a stationary target hit multiple times per game by heavier guys running full speed. That is a lot of consistent torque on a comprised neck, which could compare to low level whiplash. He can be cleared, that doesn’t make it smart.

PhinNomenol! - February 3, 2012 via Android app reply

His coaches knew his situation

and allowed him to showcase his ability in the last game of the season against the Lions.They were not playing for much in that game having already qualified for the playoffs and the Packers coaches let him sling it around the field.He sat behind Jamarcus Russell at LSU, an NFL disappointment, and Flynn was a seventh round pick.I blog as I voted I would aquire Flynn only at the right price,keeping in mind he is probably getting all this attention by the Dolphins because he played under Philbin in Green Bay.I will reiterate my opinion I as GM, would get Manning 1st if not I would try to trade up to get Robert Griffin a running QB.Remember Steve Young he played very well for years in the west coast offense as a running QB.

broxtone - February 2, 2012 reply

Sorry

Manning would be my third option. Too many question marks surrounding his health, those nerves and durability. Especially for the price tag he’ll require versus that uncertainty. I’d go RGIII, then Flynn, then Manning (Tennahill).

Yes, there are question marks surrounding EVERY QB you can possibly take. So I’d put my money on the young, hot prospect in the draft. He’s still highly malleable, a unique talent with a good combination of skillsets in pocket passer and scrambler. He is football smart and a determined, driven player.

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

Leave it up to Joe

Are two good games enough to sign a qb? Heck no. But I’m glad they weren’t bad games. Joe knows if he wants to bring flynn here or not. We just have to wait and see. So I’m with Joe

carabetta13 - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

Lol; wait & see; will get us in hot water, were (kinda used to that thoe) not "sign" the kid!

This his A.J. Feely/Kevin Kolb/Matt Cassel written all over it

Mediocre college QB thrust into garbage or injury playing time in a high powered pro offense and exceeds expectations. The fact that we wouldn’t have to give up picks makes it tempting, but that ridiculous performance in week 17 is going to make the asking price insane. I’d pass, I’m sure our idiot front office won’t.

Duens-Capps - February 2, 2012 reply

Thank You!!

rec’d

this is my concern as well...

what people are losing in the comparisons is that they are focusing on the players abilities. We are not comparing how Kolb, Castle, Feeley, and Flynn play. We are comparing the situations that they were in and how they measured up once they got their chance to shine. Castle is the only one of the bunch who had a good season. Castle regressed last year in my opinion.

But who says he can't be brees or Hasselbeck?

The percentages are against him to be such...

more that he will be an AJ Feely and such.

what alpha said is the more accurate answer...

he could be great. He could be the next aaron rodgers or tom brady. The issue isnt what could this guy do, it is what will this guy do. And history is against this man.

Phinphinatic - February 3, 2012 reply

If Philbin thinks he is franchise qb material get him

If not get Tannehill in the draft

Phinsphana - February 2, 2012 reply

If philbin thinks he has it them I’m all for it. If it wasn’t for philbin I would say no.

54 - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

Bad Luck

They just can’t catch a break. RGIII wins Heisman and rockets up draft boards. Barkley and Jones both turn down top 10 money. Peyton looks like he might not even play again. What options do they have?? Draft Tannehill as a project, roll the bones and commit to Flynn or stick with Matt Moore. I don’t think they have any option but to sign Flynn and please for the love of god stop using 1st rounds picks on needs and draft the best player available.

Orange_Cisco - February 2, 2012 reply

Actually, if you look at the draft record for Miami since the trifecta took over

And stop looking at position placements as a guide, you would see that we have done both, drafting a need AND getting the highest rated player that does so.

Im sick and tired of people thinking that just because it was a LT,CB,DE/DT,C, that it wasnt the highest rated player at the time.

Look at the facts, and you will see that Long was tied with Matty Ice as being ranked best in class by some major draft experts. Vontae was ranked right around where we drafted him at, we moved down to aqquire a second round pick that we used to pick up Marshall, and our pick up Odrick was actually ranked HIGHER than we drafted him at, and Pouncey would have went 3 spots after we selected him, so in all retrospects, we would have lost out on a fine player if we would have rolled the dice and traded down.

The only not so need that we drafted was Odrick, but as a 3-4 DE in his first full season, playing part time at that, he picked up 5 sacks and a couple QB hurries, as well as an int. So imo he wasnt a waste and will show even more value when it comes time to sit down with Langford,Starks,and gave us negotiating power already when we sat down with McDaniels.

All four have done exactly what you would expect from a player drafted at their position as well. Whats the problem here?

dolphinfan4lyfe - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

Good comment response...

rec’d

thank you sir alpha :)

dolphinfan4lyfe - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

Don't agree

Obviously wasn’t talking about Long. I’d still take Long with this pick today especially watching Matty Ice melt in the playoffs year after year. Odrick wasn’t best player available. They had a chance at JPP and Earl Thomas, both incredible athletes with much greater upside but they traded back to make safe solid picks. 2009 they picked late in the 1st round so that doesn’t really apply. And Pouncey was such an obvious need pick. Centers are rarely taken in the 1st round at all forget about #15.

Orange_Cisco - February 3, 2012 reply

Yeah.

Who cares how many long snappers you already have on the roster. If the BPA is a long snapper, you take him!

Thank you Mr. Hyperbole

wild zion beaver - February 2, 2012 reply

Yes, long snappers are always considered 1st round talent

Orange_Cisco - February 3, 2012 reply

No's the system; it is the only one he's used this give us a great heads up on getting an early winning reccord!

Belive it or not; the more time u play in the system, the more tricks you can pull-off. Hurry get him signed just as soon as posible!!!

If.......

Philbin says he is worth it, I will trust his opinion. And it could still be possible to make a play for RG3 as well. But if we don’t look for RG3 or Peyton, then I say draft Reif in the first round and Kirk Cousins in the 2nd round. I like Cousins better than any QB not named Luck or RG3. And I would go after Desean Jackson and a FS in Free Agency.

miamimike71 - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

Pass rusher

Also another pass rusher or two in the draft and FA.

miamimike71 - February 2, 2012 reply

Flynn goes deep to marshall.

It has a nice ring to it

CAphinfan - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

... a porno?

lol

lol

Nete88 - February 2, 2012 reply

I keep coming back to the draft....

He was the 12th drafted QB in 2008.
Behind: Ryan, Flacco, Brohm, Henne, O’Connell, Booty, Dixon, Johnson, Ainge, Brennen, Woodson……

7th round QBs are usually 7th round QBs for a reason. Yes, Yes, Yes….I know about that kid in New England.

Going back to 1994 when the draft went to 7 rounds. I added up all of the QBs drafted in Round 5 or later. 83 Total QB’s. How many ever were worth a damn? 3. (Bulger, Brady & Hasselbeck). Thats a 3.6 percent success rate for QB’s drafted in the 6th round or later…I don’t like those odds. I’d never stake any amount of money on those odds.

Names you would know: Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen, Derek Anderson, Tom Brady, Mark Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck.

While I am willing to say if Philbin watched Flynn in GB and is sold on him, then I’m for going and getting him…. but I just don’t like the odds.

Whoa....Potm.... get off my keyboard

damn and it erased my entire post lol

Okay, so I’m not doing the counting again, but I had counted all the QB’s taken in the 6th or 7th round since 1994 when the Draft went to a 7 round format. It was like 83 total QBs drafted in the 6th round or later.

Out of those 83…only 3 had what you would call successful careers (Brady, Bulger, Hasselback). Other names included, Fitzpatrick, Cassell, Derek Anderson, Tyler Thigpen,

Its a 3.6% success rate. I am not a fan of those Odds, if Philbin thinks that Flynn beats the odds, then absolutely get him… but if he’s wrong, then I’m going to seriously question his ability to judge a QB talent…..after working next to him for this long, you can’t be wrong about this.

smh, andthen my post reappears....

David Blaine and his server!!!

All well said.

Rec’d (the first comment)

i liked the third one best

You are forgetting

that this 7th round pick beat out a 2nd round pick in his very draft class to get to #2 on the depth chart. How often does THAT happen?

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

3.6% of the time actually succeed as starters....

There is an 3.6% chance he’ll be the next Brady, Bulger, or Hasselback.
There is an 8.4% chance he’ll be the next Fitzpatrick, Cassell, Thigpen or Derek Anderson

There is an 88% chance he’ll fail.

Just percentage wise of course….

My point is

he also beat out a 2nd round pick in his same draft class to get to #2 on the depth chart. He is obviously showing a superbowl winning coaching staff something that his higher drafted counterpart could not. I think this alone puts him in a different class.

PhinNomenol! - February 2, 2012 via Android app reply

I guess I'm just saying it doesn't matter where he is on a the depth chart

He’s got a 3.6% chance of becoming a franchise guy. I don’t think it increases his class at all. Hell Brohm was released a year after being drafted, then picked up by QB needy Buffalo and then finally now plays for the LA Locomotion…..Beating Brohm is like winning a race because you are the only car with tires :)

exactly, yet brohm was drafted higher than flynn

AnishB15 - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

So when exactly does that chance come true?

Before he’s ever played a game, is his chance still 3.6%?

After he’s beaten out a much higher rated prospect, is his chance still 3.6%?

After he’s put up 130+ ratings in his 2 starts, is his chance still 3.6%?

Your statistic if flawed.

No, my statistic is fact lol.

You understand how statistics and averages work right?

if 1 person out of every 10 succeeds….its a 10% chance he’ll succeed. Doesn’t matter who is in front of him, how he does his first game… how he does his 8th game, who he beats out to be a starter…. he has a 10% chance to be successful in his career.

Out of 83 QB’s that were drafted in the 6th or 7th round since 1994… only 3 have had successful careers akin to a franchise QB. Those 3 would be Bulger, Brady, Hasselback. The other 80 guys, turned out to not be guys you would want to pay as a franchise QB.

So, you take 3, divide by 83…you get 0.3614458. Multiply by 100 to make it easier to read. 3.614458…and round to the nearest tenth. 3.6%

Take away the names, take away whatever they do in their careers… and you have a 3.6% chance of being a “Franchise QB” if you are drafted in the 6th or 7th round…

That’s a statistic
That’s a fact.
There is nothing Gray, or misinterpreted about it.

I do understand how statisitcs and averages work, but you clearly don't.

Illustration:

You have a 1 in 1024 chance of a coin flip coming up heads 10 times in a row. After your first flip, if it comes up heads, you no longer have a 1 in 1024 chance, you now have a 1 in 512 chance. If your coin comes up heads 9 times in a row, then you have a 1 in 2 chance of flipping heads 10 times in a row.

You seem to have invented a new logical fallacy which is the exact opposite of the Gambler’s Fallacy. You’re taking a discreet probability, 3 in 83, and trying to apply it to an arbitrary period of time with a subjective starting point, a subjective ending point, and no defined qualifications for success.

The more I think about it, the more i realize you’re statistic is completely meaningless.

We're not looking for a success 10 times in a row are we?

No, so that probability formula would not be viable.

the Subjective starting point is when the NFL went to a 7 round draft.
In 1994 the NFL Draft went to the current format of 7 rounds. Thats not subjective at all.

This has nothing to do with a Gambler’s fallacy or the inverse. Its straight forward probability. if you have 3 occurences out of 83 events, the probability is 3.6%…. This figure doesnt’ take into effect skill, age, experience…. it is what it is.

You're statistic may be fact, but it is being used incorrectly

You need a clear definition of success, which you don’t have. Also, by your statistic, brohm should be better than Flynn. Is that true? Not even remotely close. You have to look at players, not numbers. Based on measurables, Jamarcus russel should be the best qb in the game, while brees should be nothing more that average. Which one of them busted out of the league and which one of them currently holds the NFL passing yards record? Based on that statistic, teams should not take chances on late round picks simply because the odd of findin the next Brady are small. Again, that is not true. Also, you would have to include undrafted guys, such as Tony romo, Kurt Warner and Matt Moore as well to be accurate.

AnishB15 - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

You lost me....

My statistic says nothing about Brohm, or Jamarcus Russell. This is a statistic solely about the probability of a QB drafted in the 6th or 7th round becoming a Franchise type QB.

3.6% of the total QBs drafted in the 6th or 7th round since 1994 have become Franchise QBs. This doesn’t take into account any other QB’s drafted in another other round.

This statistic says absolutely nothing about teams not taking chances on late round picks…. it simply states, that given the data that we have, since 1994, Only 3.6% of the QB’s taken in the 6th or 7th round have Become Franchise Quarterbacks.

Teams should take chances…. but, as stated, the return is currently 3.6%…. thats not a zero return….thats called a “chance”…. or if we’re talking about horse racing, its a the long shot.

Fr8Train - February 3, 2012 reply

That's 108 percent total?

ahh, mis calculated.. but its actually worse for Flynn :)

the 3.6% is a part of the 8.4%.
so in actuality its a 91.56% chance he fails.

3 out of 83 QBs become Franchise = 3.6%
7 out of 83 are at least as good as Cassel, Fitzpatrick etc.= 8.4%
76 out of 83 have a failed career = 91.56%

lol... I was kidding bud... no need to redo math. We all hate that shit!

I really did get your point the first time without the redo. I’m just an a-hole account. Hate those guys. Can’t trust them.

LOL, nah... You are a good guy :)

Bakersfield Blowholes - February 2, 2012 reply

Ouch

You guys are hurting my brain.

My take is this. I dont see how people think we will have to shell out major contract money to sign Flynn

Sure he will get starter money, but as a first contract, with a small window, he may just give Miami a semi hometown discount to proove he is worth a big payday later.

This may average to being a two or three year deal at first, but i am sure the combo of two coaches whos system he is familiar with, coupled with a combination of Bush, Marshall, Bess, Hartline, Jake Long, Pouncey, Fasano, Clay, and even Incognito will be a draw to him as well.

Miami gives him the best chance to succeed. The competition in the conference gives him the best chance to play against elite talent, and our head coach and offensive coordinator give him a familiarity with a system. Couple that with a defense that has ranked in the upper half of the NFL the last two years, and a vastly improved special teams, it makes for an appealing draw our ball club.

Heck, Joe seems like the type of guy that can talk a player into taking less money to come here to be a part of something special. If Philbin is okay with the hire, so am I.

Damn it feels good to be able to say that.

dolphinfan4lyfe - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

PS, Aaron Rodgers ALSO sat behind Farve for a couple of seasons before becoming the all out starter, and he was a first rounder

I am secure enough in how Green Bay works the QB position, moreso than Philly, or the Cardinals. If they think hes good enough for us, I think hes good enough for us.

dolphinfan4lyfe - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

Aaron was a first rounder... Flynn is a 6th or 7th?

7th

It's not his first contract.

It’s his second contract. And top rated free agent QBs don’t sign cheap contracts.

I Trust Philbin

If he wants Flynn then he know Flynn is the goods! I’m in favor of it if Coach is!!

SSFDballer - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

Manning and Tannehill would make more sense

There is no need to draft a quarterback earlier than the 4th round if they signed Flynn. Remember Moore is still in the mix, so it would be Moore who would battle Flynn for the starting position

BlaqDolfin - February 2, 2012 reply

Actually if you are going to sign Manning, there is no need to use a draft pick on a QB

The route to go then would be to also re sign Henne, and our young guy, stick the 2nd year player on the practice squad, and hope Manning can play.

The more i think about it, the more i dont want Manning here. He isnt the best at wanting to train his replacement and actually the rookie wouldnt be a smart choice.

If your going to use a 2nd,3rd round pick on a qb, or even trade down the first, Flynn, or even re signing Henne is your best bet. Peyton KNOWS he has the job locked, and no rookie is going to come in and try to unseat him, thus wheres the competition? However, Flynn,Henne,Moore all still have something to proove, the hunger is still there, the ability to get better is there.

THAT is what produces great QBs, the competition and desire to get better, and that is what would also help a rookie coming out the gate,the ability to see just enough of a challenge that it neither looks like an anthill, or a monsterous mountain to climb.

dolphinfan4lyfe - February 2, 2012 via mobile reply

You don't sign Manning and "hope" he can play.

If you don’t

know

he can play, you don’t sign him. And why the hell would Peyton effing Manning need starting competition?

That should be

know

Nah hennes cap would be about 4 million.

BahamaDolfan - February 3, 2012 reply

Philbin/Sherman

I guess it depends on these 2, if they plan to institute a similar game plan as in Green Bay and feel this is the guy then go for it. Hopefully the other Matt can also get better under the tutelage of these 2 guys and in the WC offense. My big concern is the contract for Flynn. I would give him a 3 year “Prove it to Me” Contract, maybe 3 years for 15M.

Phintastic - February 2, 2012 reply

It's awful risky...

It’s awful risky. But there aren’t many options. I have no evidence to back this up – but it seems to me that the model of developing a high-round draft pick behind a stable veteran has a higher success rate in the NFL. Flynn has been developing behind one of the best. But he was a low-round (7th) draft pick. Why so low? Did everyone just miss like they missed on Brady (6th round)? Or is he limited in some important way? Matt Moore has proven himself stable at worst. Moore himself was undrafted. So we’d have a 7th rounder and an undrafted as our number 1 and 2 QBs. Doesn’t seem very promising.

The real kicker for me is the price. Matt Flynn is gonna be way too expensive for what we’ll likely get out of him. Or is it? It’s a risk. You really don’t know what you’re getting with Flynn. There’s not nearly enough tape on him.

Whether they get Flynn or not, I’d like to see the Dolphins draft one of the second tier rookie QBs this year (Tennehill, Weeden, or Foles) and develop him behind Moore (or behind both Moore and Flynn). Obviously they shouldn’t burn their #8/9 overall pick on any of them. But maybe trade up from the second round (or trade down from 8/9 – maybe trade our 1st and 2nd rounder for two picks in between, and then pick up Mark Barron and Ryan Tennehill in the low first round and/or high second round).

If QB is really the thing that’s been holding the Dolphins back (and not the abysmal O-line play), then they should stack up on QB prospects. Hitting on a franchise QB is a crap shoot. You need to stack your roster with viable options until you strike gold. So go get Flynn AND a solid rookie prospect. Then if Flynn flops, you still have Moore and a potential franchise QB developing behind him.

DolphinChamps - February 2, 2012 reply

If joe philbin says yes, then yes

If not, then no

I trust his judgement

finzrule - February 2, 2012 reply

Heck no

I’d like to see him play against an elite defense and not play out of the shotgun every snap before even considering him. Not worth it to me. Make a huge play for Luck or else go with Henne / Moore again this year. RG3 ain’t worth the trade up cost. I realize this isn’t a popular opinion, but I know NFL QB’s when I see them and I still see potential out of Henne and Moore. I was the one saying to go for Dalton last year and avoid Orton/Kolb at all costs. So I’m not that far off the planet…

Drumzan - February 2, 2012 reply

But you don't need to see it. The guy's making the decision need to see it.

And they have.

Bakersfield Blowholes - February 2, 2012 reply

1st Round WR

Flynn will know the system right away so go get him and then draft a WR. bring in another QB so he also can learn the system, folks I see it this way we finally have a coach and an offensive mineded coordinator who wants to throw the ball around, so go get another reciever that can complement Marshall and then work on the OL and DE…

Henry M - February 2, 2012 reply

The more I watch Alshon Jeffery ... the more I like him

Pastor C - February 2, 2012 reply

Flynn plus

If we can get an elite 1st round draft pick QB than I say don’t sign Flynn. If not, I’d give him a shot. Don’t forget Moore played reasonably well last year, so he sould be able to compete for the job with whoever the fins get. The one thing I don’t like is all these tie-ins to the Texas A&M program. They have unachieved for the last few years. Please don’t bring in Tannehill. Texas A&M blew a number of games last year after they were up by a lot of points. They had trouble closing out games. Tannehill was part of the problem along with the coaching staff.

straighttalk - February 2, 2012 reply

No WR. We need Dwayne Allen. Crucial for the new QB's success.

BahamaDolfan - February 3, 2012 reply

Coach

Alot of good points are made by here. But they are opinons.(educated?) I think the real question is are we going to trust our new coachs choice. I think most will and will he be right all the time, No, as no one is. But I like the odds because he knows alot more than I do so whichever way he decides to go I will be behind him. But my 2 cents worth is sign Flynn and free up draft choices.

No!!!!!!!!

Dolfan18 - February 2, 2012 reply

I think in this case it's a matter of faith...

If Philbin’s convinced Flynn’s who we need in Miami, then I’ll support him. It will be telling to both us, and the rest of the league, if Philbin doesn’t bring him to Miami. In fact, other teams in the league may question that, and Flynn’s FA cost might slide.

cordy_1971 - February 2, 2012 reply

It's simple: go after RGIII and then Manning before looking at Flynn

Flynn scares me but I admit, I won’t mind bringing him in IF and only if the points below are true:
•we don’t have the balls to trade up and get RGIII
• manning is not healthy. If he’s healthy he is an all pro and going to Miami makes sense. If he is seriously not ready to play than we can’t feed him a huge contract, it could cripple our franchise.
• If Philbin believes in Flynn as a QB that could take us to the SB. If our coach doesn’t feel faith in him, how are the fans supposed to?
•we sign him to a deal that is fair to the franchise. I don’t want to break the bank for this guy and I don’t want to be “stuck” with him if he starts playing poorly.

I’m skeptical of going all in for handing the most important position on our team to a 7th round pick with 2 starts. You should be too. If we sign him, it better be under Philbins descretion and we have to be smart about it. Even so I expect he will still compete with Moore in training camp.

It would be good to save our draft picks, but I don’t mind giving up an entire draft for a QB prospect that has a legitimate shot to be a pro bowler and take this team to the promised land.

You guys can play it safe but I’m tired of settling… New coach, new attitude, Robert Griffin would be a hell of a choice

BSerious72 - February 2, 2012 via iPhone app reply

Go after RGIII first? They will touch base with Manning and Flynn starting March 13th, make a decision on either one and if they lose out on both then and only then will they entertain RGIii. I still don’t see how we can move up over Cleveland they have the 2 1sts that St. Louis would want and they wouldn’t drop back much in the draft.

mr1313 - February 2, 2012 reply

In the typical situation...

Where the coach isn’t really familiar with the QB, you go with Manning but if the coach is the former coach of the budding second stringer. You trust that coach and get excited about what he’s doing. If Philbin brings Flynn over then that means he has confidence in the kid and Miami fans should expect big things.

TAYDIGGA - February 2, 2012 reply

What about that Quarterback from Tennessee-Chattanoga?

Hah!! How could "I" forget a name like BJ Coleman?

A top ten prospect who helped himself in the East-West Shrine game.

“Physically the most gifted quarterback at this game. … displayed size, smooth mobility, and a rocket arm. … perhaps his most impressive aspect of his skill set is his passion for the game… and willingness to learn and improve. … looks comfortable commanding the huddle and is the ideal team mate. … helped himself this week and could be drafted in the top five rounds.” - Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com