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If the Indianapolis Colts release Peyton Manning ahead of his $28 million bonus on March 8, should the Dolphins pursue the high risk-high reward idea of landing Manning?
The Miami Dolphins have hired their new head coach, tapping former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin to be the tenth head coach of the franchise, and now, all eyes will turn to whomever the Dolphins can get to be the "franchise" quarterback. With the once great quarterback draft of 2012 suddenly becoming two guys, and a bunch of also-rans, the Dolphins may have to turn to free agency to find a replacement for the Chad Henne/Matt Moore led 2011 team.
As of now, there are two potential free agency targets - the Green Bay Packers' backup quarterback Matt Flynn and the Indianapolis Colts' future Hall of Famer, Peyton Manning. Of course, both teams could keep either of these players, but it will be tough for either one.
With the hire of Philbin, the speculation is going to run rampant right now that the Dolphins' will go after Flynn as soon as free agency opens on March 13. With Philbin in place, that move is not as scary, given Philbin has worked with Flynn throughout the backup quarterback's career and knows him well, as it would be if any other team grabs the quarterback based on performances in two career starts. If Philbin aggressively pursues Flynn, hitching himself to Aaron Rodgers' understudy, you have to assume Philbin trusts Flynn.
But, what about that other name? If the Colts do release Manning, rather than pay him the $28 million option due to him on March 8, should the Dolphins make a play for him? It's a high risk move - but one that, for at least a couple years, could also be high reward.
After a dismal 2-14 season, the Colts currently are holding the number one overall pick, and in position to grab the best quarterback prospect to come out of college since...well, Peyton Manning. If the Colts do grab Stanford's Andrew Luck, they would be on the hook for approximately $15 million dollars this year. That's an awful lot to pay a backup quarterback. (Coincidentally, if the Packers' were to franchise tag Flynn to keep him from leaving Green Bay, they would owe him about the same $15 million to be a backup to Aaron Rodgers, who is only making about $11 million a year.)
With the bonus due to Manning, plus his base salary, and the $15 million to Luck, can the Colts afford to pay nearly $50 million dollars for two quarterbacks? That's a steep price for two players, only one of whom is on the field at a time.
So, assuming the Colts unload Manning, what should the Dolphins do? The first step would, obviously, be to see if the quarterback is healthy. Manning missed the entire 2011 season after having three neck surgeries in 18-months. Manning has had problems with a nerve in his neck, affecting his right (throwing) arm. If that nerve has not regenerated, he may have problems gripping or throwing the ball.
Back in December, reports stated that Manning had been cleared to start increasing his football activity. The bones that were fused in his neck had strengthened enough to begin throwing, and start working his way back to practicing. However, none of that explains where Manning is now - especially with the regeneration of the nerve.
Manning entering free agency - something unheard of just a couple of years ago - would add intrigue to a market starved for quarterback talent. Several teams, including the Washington Redskins, the New York Jets, and the Dolphins, could all be looking at bringing in Manning. If the Dolphins did grab Manning, the team would most likely still take a rookie quarterback in the draft, trying to hedge its bets with Manning, as well as letting someone develop behind the aging (Manning will be 36 years old at the start of next season) superstar quarterback.
The Dolphins could also use Manning to get other quarterback needy teams out of the way of drafting Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. Some speculation has started placing Griffin ahead of Luck as the top quarterback in the draft - but don't expect the Colts to grab the Baylor QB. Meaning, if the Dolphins were able to trade up in the draft from their current eighth or ninth position, there could be less competition for the draft pick, if, say the Redskins, were content with landing Manning.
But, the idea of bringing in Manning will be tempting to many Dolphins fans. The team would be getting one of the best quarterbacks of all-time - assuming his health is not a problem. And, they would be doing it without spending the multiple draft picks it would require to move up to get Griffin. It really is a high risk-high reward move.
Whichever way the Dolphins go in this offseason - trading up to get Griffin, or signing Manning - it will be fascinating to watch as new coach Philbin looks to make his mark on a franchise - and a fan base - tired of losing seasons.
0 recs | 103 comments
im confused..
if cam newtons contract was worth 22 million, wouldnt that be the same for luck?
NickCallaway - January 21, 2012
Newton's entire 4 year contract was $22 million. - Meaning about $5.5 million per year, plus whatever his bonus was.
With his salary and bonus, Luck is projected to be in the $15 million range for this year. He will probably be around $25 million over 4 years.
Kevin Nogle - January 21, 2012
But the bonus has to come out of the total amount paid.
texascowpunk - January 21, 2012
Okay, looking into Cam a little more:
2011: Base Salary: $375,000
2012: $1,376,159
2013: $2,377,318
2014: $3,378,477
Bonus: $14,518,000
Kevin Nogle - January 21, 2012
So, the $15M number may be too high for Luck -
But it is the number being quoted the most right now.
Kevin Nogle - January 21, 2012
No it is probably about right. Just pointing out that he can make around 22 mil over 4 years. Maybe slightly more.
The amount they give him up front is just like any other contract. It comes out of the total figure and of course is spread out over the life of the contract unless they are cut, traded or retire.
texascowpunk - January 21, 2012
We could cum up with said #!
wild zion beaver - January 21, 2012
Oh yeah.
texascowpunk - January 21, 2012
Check this out for reasoning.
http://ht.cdn.turner.com/si/images/2011/07/25/New_2011_Deal_Summary_7.pdf
Sharkz_N_Phinz - January 21, 2012
Manning will retire/released similar to Favres first retirement/trade
He won’t get paid the 28 million dollars. If he’s healthy, he’ll un-retire and the Colts will trade his rights to some team like the Jets or Redskins. But he’s damaged goods and what’s to say that he gets hit hard in week 1 and is paralyzed and can’t play for the rest of the season.
Jcrew1179 - January 23, 2012
Can't see it.
Philbin said he wanted to build a program that will last years. He won’t want an ageing QB.
BahamaDolfan - January 21, 2012
Yeah, but if they get Manning, they'll still draft a QB to sit behind him, so it could help actually
Don’t forget he watched Rodgers sit behind Favre
I’m sure he could see Tannehill or someone sitting behind Manning for 3 years.
hbkDolphins - January 21, 2012
Why do people think Manning would make a great mentor?
Look no further than Painter or Sorji. Those guys backed up manning for years, and when called into duty, they flat out SUCKED! Manning (Peyton) is one of the best quarterbacks of this generation, if not all time, but I wouldn’t say he is a great mentor.
Bill Moody - January 22, 2012
It's not that they sucked it's just that he's that good. He's put in alot of time and hardwork.
It’s not his job to babysit those guys behind him. He can teach them his work habits and what ever little tricks to help them out. Plus whenever they get on the field he has no control over what reads they make and whatever decession they make with the ball.
D0lphins4Life - January 22, 2012
How do you know if hes a good mentor or not? Did it ever for once occur to you that maybe they sucked because
they sucked? That’s a horrible argument your making. Sometimes its also up to the new guy to watch the seasoned vet and learn how to become the best pro he can on his own.
texascowpunk - January 22, 2012
Painter was in Indy for 2 years.
Not exactly a whole lot of time.
Finhead83 - January 22, 2012
If Philbin wants Flynn that tells me enough to know that I want Flynn.
JTC111 - January 21, 2012
If you hire Philbin because you trust him and then he tells you that Flynn is ready to be the guy for a team then don't you
have to trust the guy that knows him better then any scout in the league?
texascowpunk - January 21, 2012
I think that is what he is saying...
I am looking at NTs and OLBs. … there are a few out there that could really improve our defense…
Jason Scott_90 - January 21, 2012
manning
i think you all are jumping the gun with peyton….if he retires, it may be because he doesnt want to end up a cripple…lets wait and see what peyton decides before you get all excited about nothing. For now, let’s let coach philbin and ireland decide who gets under center
paul wall 1962 - January 22, 2012
Here are some tweets I saw regarding this:
Here’s a response to a tweet I sent Mike Berardino asking if in his opinion we will try to sign Flynn:
The Earl - January 21, 2012
we don't want the problem of peyton going down let alone struggling in the first year of a new coach. moore and flynn would not
be a bad tandem, if it can be worked out.
some other team will offer moore a starting spot. would moore accept now what he accepted last year, a backup role? will lbe interesting to watch.
a1a - January 22, 2012
Isn't Brees a free agent?
Tunaflipper - January 21, 2012
Technically yes.
But he even said it himself. He would be “beyond shocked” if he doesn’t work out a deal with NO.
I would expect them to franchise him, then sign him to a long term deal.
But, if they do franchise him – the Dolphins could go after him and just pay the price in draft picks for signing him.
Kevin Nogle - January 21, 2012
Not being a douche, but that’s incorrect. There’s two types of franchise tags, exclusive and non-exclusive. Exclusive franchise tags nullify the ability of a player to move to another team. So in other words, placing an ‘exclusive franchise tag’ on a player, he is unable to leave, and other teams are unable to negotiate or trade draft picks for him. Non-exclusive franchise tags entitle the team to compensation if another team signs him [2 first round picks or whatever], or the team can match their offer. You can bet your butt that if the Saints franchise Brees, it’ll be of the exclusive variety, and even if they didn’t, they still have the right to match any offer that another team gave him.
arodgb - January 21, 2012
The Saints may very well use the non-exclusive tag though
They have a lot of FAs and little cap space and they’ll look to save money where they can. If they franchise Brees with the exclusive tag, they pay the average salary for the current NFL season. if they use the non-exclusive, they pay the average salary of the top 5 at QB for the previous NFL season. There is a pretty decent amount between them. I think the Saints may opt to do that because one, they don’t expect Brees sign elsewhere and two, they probably don’t expect any other teams to even try negotiating with him.
Brees isn’t going anywhere, but just don’t think the Saints will use the exclusive because there are disadvantages to that.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
That’s the idea.
Do you have any idea how much? I see the amount from last year was 16.4 million, and I’ve got a hard time believing this years average will be that much higher than last years average…
arodgb - January 21, 2012
I'm not sure what the exact numbers would be.
A big factor would be Peyton Manning. If the Colts keep him and the Saints do use the exclusive rights franchise tag, Manning’s contract alone could be a large escalator for Brees. Reports have also said back in December though that Brees wouldn’t sign the franchise tag.
No matter the outcome, I do not see Brees being anywhere except New Orleans next year and I do think they’ll agree to a contract extension, even if the Saints do place a tag on him to extend the talks.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
Thanks for the info.
And imagine if you were Brees. $16 million+ just to sign your name on the tag, and he says he won’t do it.
Sigh
arodgb - January 21, 2012
LOL
I’d do it for 1% of that amount.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
Me too. Y’know, that’s pretty ridiculous. That’s like, a career for 95% of these players.
arodgb - January 21, 2012
Actually Finhead the way they calculate the franchise tag will change this season and the QB tag will be
less then he is likely to get per year in a long term deal.
texascowpunk - January 21, 2012
Good point, I forgot about that.
It’ll be interesting to see what the formulas will be and if they even still have exclusive rights and non-exclusive.
Finhead83 - January 22, 2012
They will still have both kinds but the amount is coming down considerably.
The only thing that is not affected is if you tagged someone for the 2011 season and try to do so again in 2012 their is an increase over the previous year of at least 10%.
Oh and the 2012 QB tag will be 14.4 to 14.5 mil.
texascowpunk - January 22, 2012
He'll retire a Saint. We sadly won't get a 3rd chance to get him haha
hbkDolphins - January 21, 2012
Can't comment says it all...
Philbin was asked about Flynn, and reminded reporters that he couldn’t talk about players currently under contract with other teams. This leads me to believe that he doesn’t want a tampering charge if he chooses to pursue Flynn in free agency. I believe Flynn is his target.
With regards to Peyton, I think he’s damaged goods. In addition, he has only known one offense his entire career. I don’t think Philbin wants to pander to an aging qb for 3 years only to be forced to start over once manning retires.
VA_Phins_Fan - January 21, 2012 via Android app
Isn't Peyton known for not letting back up QB's take snaps?
Tunaflipper - January 21, 2012
It seems to me that we will go after Flynn and then draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd to groom
Look for us to draft Tannehill or Foles in the 2nd.
The Earl - January 21, 2012
If Philbin thinks Flynn is his guy, why would the team draft a qb to groom in the 2nd or 3rd rather than fill a need that might help next season?
JTC111 - January 22, 2012
It's a tampering charge today is he comments on Flynn.
Doesn’t matter if goes after him or not. Just talking about him could be tampering.
Kevin Nogle - January 21, 2012
Didn't realize that.
VA_Phins_Fan - January 21, 2012 via Android app
The NFL odd about tampering....
There’s a post on PFT about how the tampering season is started already. I may make a post based on that too.
Basically everyone in the NFL tampers by talking to agents. As long as it’s not overt, and it’s not something a team complains about, the NFL lets it happen. It’s only if it a team is “caught with one hand pressed against the bottom of the cookie jar and the other hand giving the league office the finger,” as PFT puts it, that the NFL steps in.
Kevin Nogle - January 21, 2012
I think the only reason the NFL does not do anything about is that the talking to agents early and that sort of thing
that goes on league wide and its something that is nearly impossible to prove and thus totally impossible to police.
texascowpunk - January 21, 2012
I can see that. He also talked of the importance of a rushing defence.
We only have wake right now. I really can see us get an OLB in the first, hopefully by trading back.
BahamaDolfan - January 22, 2012
Flynn
Manning is staying put.I like the thoughts of Flynn with Philbin anyway.He did a great job with the offence in Green Bay.The Dolphins need lots of offence.The handful of games I saw Flynn play in he was impressive.A starter in a lot of other orginizations.I hope they go after him.The Phins have some targets to throw to and he has a good arm.I also think that Henne is a dud and they should deal him and keep Moore as the back-up.
scott.r.avery - January 21, 2012
Did you watch the Detroit game?
Just about every snap Flynn took was out of the shotgun. That presents problems. He played against a terrible Lions secondary. If Aaron Rodgers can’t beat the Giants with the weapons they have and Flynn is the 2nd to Rodgers…how good can he really be? Not a fan of Flynn at all. I like the idea of building within. Use what you’ve got. Henne and Moore are good enough for the time being. The priority on offense should be finding a seam threat TE and solifying the right side of the line.
Drumzan - January 21, 2012
Flynn took a bunch of snaps from behind center. He doesn't have problems behind center.
As for as him being #2 to Rodgers, well yes, that is obvious. Drew Bledose couldn’t beat the terrible Bengals or Jets in 2001 and Brady was 2nd to Bledsoe. How good could Tom Brady be? I think we discovered that answer. I understand hesitations about Flynn, but try to be logical about the hesitations. Trying to insinuate that Flynn struggles to take snaps behind center (he doesn’t) or saying it’s because he’s 2nd string to Rodgers are silly reasons.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
And GB have a good record when it comes to their backup QB's becoming franchise QB's
Matt Hasselbeck being one of them.
BahamaDolfan - January 22, 2012
Henne is NOT good enough...
The guy had his chances. He throws too many interceptions and not enough touchdowns. Time to cut bait on him.
Bill Moody - January 22, 2012
here here
a1a - January 22, 2012
Man, Manning while drafting Tannehill as the under-study would be VERY tempting!
Ohhhhh the possibilities.
I a also very game for bringing in Flynn….if Philbin wants Flynn tha say a lot to me!
MassFinFan65 - January 21, 2012
wow typos...I am + that!
MassFinFan65 - January 21, 2012
Agreed
hbkDolphins - January 21, 2012
If Peyton is available and the Dolphins want him
it will be a fight till the death with the NY Jets. Fatty needs to back up his mouth this year or New York will start to turn against him.
kermit the frogger29 - January 21, 2012
This ... you know if he is available the Jets will make a play for him...
Do we really want to play 2x against him and Brady each year?? If the guy is available he isone of the smartest QBs in the league… Even if we were to bring in a guy like RG3 and have him learn behind Manning for a year or 2… could you see the problem with that?
Jason Scott_90 - January 21, 2012
We used to years ago...
I dont think brady was running the Patsies yet but I remember playing twice against Peyton every year. Im not being critical of your comment but we did have Indy in our division for a long time.
AKdolphan - January 21, 2012
Jets would have to restructure a lot of contracts, they are already over the salary cap
Don’t forget, Miami has almost no money in the QB position. Jets gave Sanchez a ton of $$$ and lost draft picks for him.
And I doubt Peyton would want to go there with the dysfunction in the locker room AND cold weather after a neck injury AND playing in the same city/building as Eli.
hbkDolphins - January 21, 2012
The Jets can't afford Peyton anyways.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
I cannot see us getting Peyton...
but, to be honest, i really have no idea which team would be a good fit for him anyway. At this stage, Peyton just wants to win so I cant see him going to a team like the Browns or Redskins. As for the Jets, i guess they are the front runners by default, but I dont see Rex and Peyton as good fits personality wise and idk if Peyton would want to be a part of an organization that is kind of messed up right now.
Personally, I really want to see us go for the future and draft RGIII. The best case senario is for Peyton to go to the Redskins and Flynn to go to the Browns giving us a great shot at RGIII. Unlikely, but that what I am hoping for
#1Heatfan - January 21, 2012
Minnesota, Arizona, and Washington would be good teams for him.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
I'm in the "not Flynn" boat
I liked the hire of Philbin but I don’t like Flynn. I think having Henne and Moore compete for another year will be a cheap and effective option. Draft a QB not named RG3 that they can groom for a year or two. There’s better ways to use the salary cap than spending boat loads of money on a QB who has had 2 starts and padded his stats against terrible secondaries. Miami’s 3 priorities this offseason should be finding an athletic TE, pass rushing OLB and shoring up the right side of the O-line.
Drumzan - January 21, 2012
If Miami goes the FA route...
I would go after Jason Campbell if Henne isn’t an option.
Drumzan - January 21, 2012
Other than the Keep Henne thing I agree with you to a certain extent
however don’t you think by us getting Flynn we will have the greater advantage to win NOW. Since bringing a QB up to speed with how the system operates will surely handicap us for atleast the first couple of games in the season.
kermit the frogger29 - January 21, 2012
I would not be upset with Matt Flynn at this point..
Provided that he is in fact the real deal. If he flames out, I will be upset with the front office, the coach and everyone else involved. But if anyone knows if this kid can do the job or not, it is probably the guy that watched him make every throw in practice last year. He has spoken to him in the meeting room. He is the one guy that can tell you if this kid is really almost as good as Aaron Rodgers, or if the team made him look good. If he is the answer he already knows the offense and the terminology, so he can help lead the team and teach them the playbook. We also know that Flynn can be successful under this guy’s offense… If Joe Philbin who has seen more of this kid than any one of us thinks this kid is the real deal… I have to say I wouldn’t be against it…
Jason Scott_90 - January 22, 2012
If Manning is healthy, then YES
Pretty sure we wind up with one of them – RG3, Flynn or Manning. If we don’t, it’s going to be a very disappointing start.
hbkDolphins - January 21, 2012
My best scenario would be signing a healthy Manning for the present and drafting RGIII for the future
phinsphan85 - January 21, 2012
I'd piss
aqua and coral up and down 95!
PhinNomenol! - January 21, 2012 via Android app
Lol I believe it
phinsphan85 - January 21, 2012
Manning will go to the Jets, IMO.
Tom Moore, his OC in Indy for a number of years, was an offensive consultant for the Jets last year. Where Tom Moore goes, I think Peyton will be there.
Good Luck with FG Tony!! LOL
ct1361 - January 21, 2012
I don't see NYJ affording Peyton.
Especially since Sanchez is so expensive. They have cap issues.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
They will find the cap room if they want him.
The Phins don’t have the cap room to sign Flynn or Manning right now. They need to find room too if they want to play in that derby.
ct1361 - January 21, 2012
We have much more room than NYJ
The Jets will be hard pressed to find room because they have numerous free agents and they spent much of 2010 trying to push back money with renegotiated contracts. Not that I want Miami to make a run at Manning, but Miami has $10 million extra to spend over NYJ and we have significantly fewer FAs. I don’t see why you’d think NYJ can make room to run at him when we’re struggling to even sign Flynn (we’re not).
NYJ will be over the cap with Pouha, Leonard, Smith, Thomas, LT, Folk, Plax, and Pool entering FA. They’ve already reworked numerous contracts and will probably be dumping a few players like Bart Scott to save space. They have way too many holes to try and sign Manning.
Miami can create an additional $3-6 million in extra cap space by signing Long and Starks to extensions. Plus we can use $1.5 million exceptions on up to 3 players and can roll over unused cap from 2011 into 2012. Miami will be fine in FA. The Jets will be fine in FA too, but they won’t be in good enough position to afford Peyton unless they want to leave a bunch of holes elsewhere.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
how much of this years cap was unused and how will rolling over the amount affect us in the long run?
dolphinfan4lyfe - January 21, 2012 via mobile
The rollover won't affect us in the long run.
I don’t know the exact amount we were under the cap, but we didn’t have a ton left over. I’d estimate we were anywhere between $1-4 million under the cap. You add that up though with the exceptions and extensions/releases, Miami could get themselves to being close to $20 mil under or even more.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
I don't know if resigning Long will affect his salary against the cap.
Long is going to have a cap hit of a little over $12 million this year. If he signs a Joe Thomas type deal, $84M over 7 years, that’s about the same cap hit.
Also, Miami is going to have to sign a NT if they stay in a 3-4 defense. That is going to eat up about $4-5M in cap space.
The Dolphins cap situation isn’t the best, especially if they want to resign Long AND get either Flynn or Manning. Long and either one of those QB’s are going to consume anywhere from $25 – $30M in salary cap. Right now the Phins don’t have that much.
ct1361 - January 21, 2012
Long can save a lot for Miami.
Even if he signs a deal similar to Thomas, he can have a lower base salary in 2012. He could conceivably make $6-10 million in 2012 and have much of the deal backloaded. That move by itself could save Miami over $4 million against the cap.
The Dolphins may have to look for a NT, but again, a $4-5 million cap use on a NT offsets the restructured contract for Long. That keeps Miami at $10 mil under with a NT on board without extensions to Starks and maybe even Bell (or Bell can be cut for cap space). Plus the $1.5 million extensions for 3 players ($4.5 mil total) and the rollover, that is more space.
Miami could sign Flynn or Peyton to a similar contract with a lower base salary, keeping Peyton around $11 million cap hit for 2012 and much lower than that for Flynn ($4-6 million). Peyton and Long could conceivably cost about $17 mil. Flynn and Long could cost about $11 mil against the cap. The Phins can have that much.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
Why would Long do that? Why would Long take a "pay cut" in '12 of almost $5M?
Thomas’ cap hit in ‘11 was just over $13M. His salary was $8M. I would expect Long’s contract to be similar. If the Phins “back load” his contract, then the guaranteed $$, his salary, and the cap considerations in the future would be devastating to the Dolphins later in the contract.
If Miami doesn’t meet these types of contract demands, Long would be dumb not to explore FA next year. Some team will offer him Thomas type money if not more.
ct1361 - January 21, 2012
Teams do that all the time.
And he wouldn’t be getting less money because he still would get a heck of a signing bonus. It’s just split over later years. It’s very common and I wouldn’t be surprised at all because his largest payday could come in 2013 when the cap is supposed to take a significant jump. The bonus money wouldn’t be any worse in the future. It would still be prorated over the course of his contract. Only his base salary would be lower. Again, we could have 2013 as his highest year to please him if he really wanted.
It’s not that Long wouldn’t get Thomas money. He would get that and could even get more, but Miami could offer to have the largest of the impact spread over another year. It’s a very common thing to do.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
I know that teams do that all the time, but in this situation the numbers would be really bad later in the contract for the Phins unless the salary cap goes up a ton over the next 3-5 years.
Let’s say Long’s contract is $90M, with $50M guaranteed, for 7 years, a contract larger than Thomas. The guaranteed $$ is spread over the length of the contract, which is $7M per year. If the Phins pay him a salary of $1M next year, his cap hit would be $8M. That leaves $40 Million in salary that the Phins would then have to spread out over the remaining 6 years of the contract.
Eventually the Phins are going to have to pay a franchise QB during Long’s contract the going rate in the NFL. That’s $15 – $20M per year. Can the Phins afford to have $30 – $35M in salary cap tied up in 2 players, the QB and LT? That doesn’t leave much for the rest of the offense.
ct1361 - January 21, 2012
It's all part of the process, but they could make it work.
If Miami did give $50 mil guaranteed, they could still try and work around it. For example, they could make the largest part in 2013 or 2014 when the cap will be significantly higher. They can offset a reduced cap now of $8 mil and still average $12 mil a year by giving him $14 mil ($7 mil base salaries) in 2013 and 2014. That is a high number, but it’s not devastating for a premiere LT. If that is too much for some to swallow, then they might as well hope we trade Long. Miami can offset the higher costs for QBs and LTs because if they draft a QB (hopefully Griffin), his contract won’t be huge in 2013 and 2014 and Miami wouldn’t be forced to make a decision on the club option until after his 3rd year. That means Miami has their franchise QB and franchise LT for closer to $23-$26 mil, not $30-$35.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
That's assuming that the Phins draft a Franchise QB
Flynn or Manning won’t come that cheap. Flynn is going to get a Kolb like contract of 5 years, $63M, with $20M guaranteed. Manning, if healthy, would probably get more.
ct1361 - January 21, 2012
Of course.
I don’t think Flynn will get the same level as Kolb though. Manning would get more, but again, Miami could push Long’s salary back to 2015 and 2016 even. That’d be post-Manning. Besides, they could even keep it there for 2013 and 2014 because the salaries of players like Bell and McDaniel would be off our books. There are numerous different ways and Manning is certainly a more difficult sign, but Miami could do it.
Still, going back to the original point, Miami would be in much better position to sign Manning than NYJ is. I hope Miami doesn’t do it, but NYJ simply has too many free agents and they’ve already renegotiated most of the higher contracts. Players like Calvin Pace and Bart Scott would actually cost more to cut than to keep on their roster.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
Nice debate Finhead.
I think both teams can make it work. There would just have to be a lot of choices to be made to make it work and the Dolphins have fewer of those choices than the Jets.
It’s going to be an interesting off season, that’ for sure.
ct1361 - January 21, 2012
definitely an interesting off season and i hope and expect philbin will have other options
than going to the dallas and cleveland offload pile.
my guess is that philbin has a greater chance of making things work with flynn, if he decides this is worth the risk.
a1a - January 22, 2012
I think Miami actually has more choices...
But I hope they used the money elsewhere. Manning is not at the top of my wishlist. Glad we were finally able to debate again. I normally have more fun with your debates!
Finhead83 - January 22, 2012
Also...
Starks has a $5 mil cap hit in 2012 and Bell has a $6.2 mil cap hit for next year. Both are in their final years. Both of those salaries can be cut with an extension. Bell could be released as well.
Finhead83 - January 21, 2012
Yeah the cap will be parred down. They do it every year and this year will be no exception.
Also they might give Long something long like a 10 year contract to spread out the upfront monies but knowing good and well that they might have to eat some of it on the back end but the cap is expected to really start rising much faster when the new contracts are signed.
texascowpunk - January 21, 2012
IF he passes his physical...even if he needs a "redshirt" year...I'd go for Peyton Manning
We went with Chad Pennington and moved the hyphen…Peyton will be better and more durable than Chad was…
Funny that another former Colts QB would lead us to a perfect season and super bowl win
DolphDallas - January 21, 2012
Chy* there's one way, he know's the effing system only to good hands down lock at pick up Philbin!
wild zion beaver - January 21, 2012
Beave
Email me at dolfan88bh@aol.com. I want to send you sum I candy.
Dolfan88 - January 21, 2012
Hopefully you sign Flynn
Then I can cheer for the Dolphins! Actually, I’m already starting to like you guys. As long Philbin starts challenging the Pats for the division.
arodgb - January 21, 2012
personally...i think it's a forgone conclusion....we could use another good fan!
MagicDolphin - January 21, 2012
My Broncos are beginning to get better
the Niners are better, now we need the Dolphins and Skins to rise again, just like the 80s, the Dolphins in charge, the Pats in the toilet, sounds good to me
the new Bradfather - January 22, 2012
Since we are spouting wold Manning conspiracy theories...lets try this one on for size.
Irsey has said that if Peyton is healthy and wants to come back then they will take him. Bonus be damned. And in that I see the a wide array of smokes screens coming out of Indianappolis. They have said all year they will draft Luck and now they say they are considering RG3 as well. Maybe this is because they just cleared out most of the coaching staff. If they retain manning and still sit at No.1 it is clear they have TONS of other needs on their team. Do they trade No1 for a bunch, and I mean a bunch of picks and maybe players as well. Then draft a later QB to groom behind on of the best in the business. What would something like that do to shake up the situation?
Hollywood Dolfan - January 21, 2012
*wild
Hollywood Dolfan - January 21, 2012
If Manning is healthy go get him guys
you already had the G.O.A.T. QB in Marino, go get his heir apparent, Peyton
the new Bradfather - January 22, 2012
What happens if the Colts dont draft Luck and just stay with Manning ? No one ever thinks that may happen. Yes a Looooooooooong shot but Manning pretty much gets anything he wants from the Colts.
jdtman - January 22, 2012
Remember, Colts coaching staff and front offices have been decimated. Irsay is left making all the decisions right now.
Irsay says he will keep Peyton in one breathe, drafting Luck the next and considering RG3 the next moment. The man is clearly up to something.
Hollywood Dolfan - January 22, 2012
New Coach new System
Todays NFL, is the system that makes the QB, only the elite QB who are few can overcome any system, but In my opinion with Philbin most likely setting up the same system they ran in Greenbay, I think Mat Flynn wil fit here perfectly. My only concern who will be the Defensive Coordinator now that Nolan is gone.
Henry M - January 22, 2012
Healthy Manning and someone like Tannehill would be better than Flynn
hbkDolphins - January 22, 2012
PS Schefter says Cardinals have joined the mix of Dolphins, Redskins and Jets
hbkDolphins - January 22, 2012
And Mort has said a source said Dolphins will monitor Manning's status and health before any other QB
hbkDolphins - January 22, 2012
WON'T FLYNN COST US F/A?
He’s going to want to be a starter. He’s going to want $7-10M/per year. $10M for who? For someone who started two games and who makes everyone think of him for the last game he played. For me – no. We don’t know about F/A. We wouldn’t be available to chase Carl Nicks, would we? I’m not sure about the numbers so you guys have to check.
If Manning comes cheap – what would be cheap for him? We don’t have to keep him at his current salary do we? Draft a 2nd or 3rd rounder and hire Chad P as our QB coach. He would make a great coach.
That’s my opinion. I won’t jump on the bandwagon. I’ll tell you who I would like our new coach to bring over – I read (Pro Football Talk) that LB Hawks is getting “blamed” for the Packer season – they signed him to a large contract and let Barnett go. Hawks and Dansby would make a fine inside combination.
Isn’t Mario Williams a F/A? Williams opposite Wake. They (opponents) would fear us.
I don’t know guys – millions for someone who’s had 3 surgeries in 1 1/2 and millions for someone who started two but played one good game – I don’t know.
Constructive critizcism ALWAYS welcome from you. Thank you.
Valentine14 - January 22, 2012
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